I'll research HAS (Hasbro) before writing the earnings preview. Let me gather recent financials, transcripts, and news.I have good context. Let me read the most recent earnings materials (Q1 2026 release and call) and get recent price action plus peer/sector news.Let me read the Q1 2026 earnings call transcript for guidance color and check the M&A/tariff backdrop.Let me quickly grab the prior-year Q2 2025 base numbers for comparison.I now have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.
Hasbro heads into Q2 as a company that has quietly transformed from a struggling toymaker into a games-and-IP business riding one asset — MAGIC: THE GATHERING. The question for this print isn't whether Wizards is strong (it is), but whether (1) MAGIC's record momentum can clear an increasingly tough bar, and (2) the March cybersecurity incident and back-half cost pressures muddy an otherwise clean story. Management has told investors this quarter will look "lumpy," so reported optics matter less than the trajectory into a heavy second half.
Per recent sell-side previews, consensus models total sales +8.1% to $1.06B, including physical toys about flat at $448MM and Wizards/gaming +14.3% to $597MM for Q2. Sentiment is skewed constructive: sentiment is more positive on HAS compared to Mattel, driven by its robust Wizards gaming business which shows healthy growth and higher margins than physical toys.
The prior-year bar (Q2 2025 actuals):
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $980.8M | −1% y/y at the time |
| Wizards & Digital Gaming rev | $522.4M | +16% |
| MAGIC: THE GATHERING | $412.0M | +23% (Final Fantasy set) |
| Consumer Products rev | $442.4M | −16% |
| Entertainment rev | $16.0M | −15% |
| Adjusted operating profit | $247.1M | ~flat y/y |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.30 | +$0.08 y/y |
| Monopoly GO! | $44M | licensing |
Note the messy GAAP comp: Q2 2025 operating loss of $798.2M included a $1,021.9M non-cash goodwill impairment in Consumer Products that was triggered by the implementation of tariffs. That drove a reported net loss of $6.10/share a year ago, so headline GAAP EPS will swing dramatically positive y/y — focus on adjusted figures.
1. MAGIC is on a record-breaking run. Q1 set the tone: Q1 showed that MAGIC's record 2025 was no fluke. Lorwyn Eclipsed, which debuted in January, became the best-selling MAGIC Premier set of all-time. Crucially, that record has already been broken again — MAGIC's momentum has carried into Q2 where Secrets of Strixhaven already have surpassed Lorwyn Eclipsed as the largest MAGIC Premier set ever. On top of that, Q2 carries a marquee Universes Beyond drop: in partnership with The Walt Disney Company, MAGIC ARENA will feature full digital rights for the upcoming Marvel Super Heroes launch — a meaningful step in extending the MAGIC ecosystem across platforms.
2. Management flagged Q2 Wizards as a standout. On the Q1 call, CFO Gina Goetter said "for Wizards, Q2 is looking quite robust... we had a big quarter last year. We expect this quarter to be really big" — driven by both Strixhaven and the Super Heroes launch.
3. Q1 delivered a clean beat and margin expansion. Net revenue in Q1 was $1.0 billion, up 13% year-over-year; adjusted operating profit of $287 million increased 29%, with an adjusted operating margin of 28.7%, up 360 basis points; adjusted EPS were $1.47, up 41%. Wizards ran at a 51.2% operating margin.
1. The cyber incident shifts revenue OUT of Q2. In late March, Hasbro identified unauthorized network access and took systems offline. Management quantified three specific Q2 impacts: approximately $20 million of one-time remediation opex (excluded from adjusted EBITDA); approximately $40M–$60M of Consumer Products revenue delayed from Q2 to the back half; and a shift of some receivables from Q2 into Q3, impacting cash flow.
The practical read-through for CP: as they came into the year, Q2 was going to be the big CP quarter because they were lapping tariff noise, but given the cyber event it now shifts to Q3 — so Q2 CP is expected to grow only low-single-digits, with double-digit growth coming in Q3. Expect a soft-looking CP quarter and, importantly, weak operating cash flow this print — Goetter said "as we sit here in July, you're going to see us with a much lower operating cash flow" that recovers into Q3 and Q4. Don't over-react to the cash optics.
2. Back-half cost pressure is building. Management called out oil-linked inflation: rising oil costs impact freight, resin and packaging, largely contained to Consumer Products, with a rough impact of about $30 million this year assuming oil around $100/barrel — mitigated by a ~$15M tariff good-guy plus accelerated productivity. The hit lands in H2, but watch for commentary on whether $100 oil still holds.
Hasbro reiterated (not raised) full-year guidance at Q1, calling it a "prudent" early-year hold. For 2026 the company continues to expect consolidated revenue growth of 3–5% on a constant-currency basis with growth across each segment, adjusted operating margins of 24–25%, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.40–$1.45 billion. Segment framing: Wizards on track for mid-single-digit revenue growth with operating margins in the low-40% range; Consumer Products low-single-digit growth with adjusted operating margins of 6–8%; Entertainment slightly positive with ~50% margins.
Watch for a guidance raise. Given how strong MAGIC has been (Strixhaven now the biggest Premier set ever, Marvel launching in Q2), the debate is whether management finally lifts the full-year outlook — as it did at this same point in 2025. A reiteration despite an obvious Wizards beat may read as conservatism; a raise would validate the bull case. Also note the back-half Wizards deceleration is expected and by design: Q4 is the tough MAGIC comp and could be down, with the full back half up low-single-digits when combining Q3 growth and Q4 decline.
HAS closed around $81.6 on July 20, essentially flat year-to-date (~$83 to start January) but roughly 23% below its early-February high near $106 reached right after the strong Q4 print. Notably, shares sold off after the Q1 report (from ~$97 to ~$89 on the May 20 print) and slid to the mid-$70s in early July before a modest recovery into the print. That drift lower into an objectively strong operating quarter suggests expectations have reset somewhat — setting up an asymmetric reaction if management raises guidance or MAGIC's Q2 number is a blowout.
Bottom line: The bull case is intact and concentrated — a MAGIC juggernaut lapping big numbers, expanding margins, and a self-inflicted-but-temporary cyber revenue shift that pushes upside into Q3. Key debates for the call: (1) does the obvious Wizards strength finally force a full-year guidance raise; (2) how much CP revenue actually slipped and how confident is the Q3 recovery; (3) magnitude/timing of oil cost pressure and the $50M tariff refund; and (4) any M&A posture. Reported cash flow and CP growth will look soft — the substance is in Wizards, margins, and the guide.
Note: All figures reflect company reports and sell-side previews cited above; actuals for Q2 2026 will be released July 21.