Ticker: HAS (NASDAQ) Earnings Date: July 21, 2026 (Pre-Market) Prepared: July 20, 2026 Reporting Period: Q2 2026 (quarter ending June 30, 2026)
Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 is a manageable bar with a known headwind already baked in — the cybersecurity incident shifted ~$40–60M of Consumer Products revenue out of Q2 into Q3, so the Street has already de-risked the quarter; the real swing factor is whether Wizards/Magic momentum (consensus: ~$479M, +16% YoY) can sustain its record-breaking pace and whether Consumer Products POS trends translate into enough shipping to offset the cyber drag.
Heading into Q2 2026, the consensus bar for Hasbro looks appropriately calibrated — total revenue consensus of ~$1.07B implies +8% YoY growth, with the Street already accounting for the ~$40–60M Consumer Products revenue shift caused by the late-March cybersecurity incident. Management guided explicitly for Wizards to have a "quite robust" Q2 driven by the Secrets of Strixhaven release (which management disclosed had already surpassed Lorwyn Eclipsed as the largest Magic Premier set ever) and the Marvel Super Heroes launch, while Consumer Products was guided to grow at only a low-single-digit rate in Q2 versus the originally anticipated low-double-digit rate. Guidance tone has been confident and contained: the April 23 pre-announcement reiterated full-year guidance (revenue +3–5% constant currency, adj. EBITDA $1.40–1.45B, adj. operating margin 24–25%), and the May 20 Q1 call reinforced that the cyber impact is a timing issue, not a demand issue, with POS trends positive through end of April. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print — Q2 adj. EPS consensus has slipped from ~$1.13 to ~$1.05 — reflecting the cyber-driven revenue timing shift and oil-related input cost headwinds (~$30M full-year impact at $100/bbl oil, back-half weighted), but the full-year EPS consensus of ~$5.99 is essentially unchanged, suggesting the Street views Q2 softness as transitory. The stock has underperformed since the Q1 print (down ~8% vs. XLY flat), with multiple compression (NTM EV/EBITDA from ~11x to ~9.5x) doing most of the damage, leaving the setup less crowded and the bar lower than it was in May. The key wildcard is the magnitude of the Wizards beat: if Secrets of Strixhaven and Marvel Super Heroes shipments are as strong as management's commentary implies, a meaningful revenue and EPS upside surprise is achievable, but any signal of Q4 Wizards deceleration (management flagged potential Q4 decline on tough comps) could cap the stock reaction.
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a moderate bar — the cyber-driven CP revenue shift has already been absorbed in estimates, making Magic/Wizards revenue the primary swing factor; a beat there can more than offset CP softness, while any Wizards miss would be hard to recover from given the segment's outsized margin contribution.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change (Est.) | Guidance (FY or Segment) | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Net Revenue ($M) | $1,000.2M | $980.8M | $1,069.3M | +9.0% | FY +3–5% CC; Wizards mid-SD; CP low-SD | On track with FY range |
Adj. EPS — Diluted ($) | $1.47 | $1.30 | $1.14 | −12.3% | FY adj. op. margin 24–25% | Consistent with back-half weighting |
MAGIC: THE GATHERING Revenue ($M) | $469.6M | $412.0M | $478.9M | +16.2% | Wizards mid-SD revenue growth FY; Q2 "quite robust" | Ahead of FY pace; Q2 guided strong |
Consumer Products Revenue ($M) | $397.9M | $442.4M | $446.5M | +0.9% | CP low-SD growth FY; Q2 low-SD (cyber impact) | Slightly above Q2 guidance midpoint |
Adj. Operating Income ($M) | $287.0M | $247.1M | $253.0M | +2.4% | FY adj. op. margin 24–25% | Consistent with guidance range |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Q1 2026 Actual and Q2 2025 Actual are reported figures; Q2 2026 Consensus Estimates are current consensus as of July 20, 2026. Guidance references are from the Q1 2026 earnings call (May 20, 2026) and April 23, 2026 pre-announcement.
Quarter | Reported ($M) | Consensus ($M) | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $1,281.3 | $1,298.5 | −1.3% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | $1,281.3 | $1,298.5 | −1.3% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | $1,101.6 | $1,023.5 | +7.6% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $887.1 | $773.0 | +14.8% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $980.8 | $882.1 | +11.2% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | $1,387.5 | $1,344.6 | +3.2% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $1,445.9 | $1,263.9 | +14.4% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | $1,000.2 | $963.9 | +3.8% | Beat |
Quarter | Reported ($) | Consensus ($) | Surprise % | Result |
Q3 2024 | $1.73 | $1.28 | +35.2% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | $0.46 | $0.34 | +35.3% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $1.04 | $0.68 | +52.9% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $1.30 | $0.76 | +70.5% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | $1.68 | $1.64 | +2.4% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $1.51 | $0.95 | +58.9% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | $1.47 | $1.14 | +29.0% | Beat |
Pattern: HAS has beaten adj. EPS consensus in every reported quarter shown, often by very wide margins (30–70%+), reflecting a consistent Street tendency to under-model Wizards/Magic upside; revenue beats have been more moderate but consistent over the last six quarters. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Full-year guidance has been reiterated twice since Q4 2025 earnings (April 23 pre-announcement and May 20 Q1 call) with no changes to the headline numbers; the only evolution is the explicit quantification of the cyber incident's Q2-to-Q3 revenue timing shift (~$40–60M) and the flagging of ~$30M oil-related input cost headwinds in the back half, both of which are embedded in guidance.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 Earnings Call) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Total Revenue Growth (CC) | +3% to +5% constant currency | — | ~+4% implied by $4.99B FY consensus | Reiterated Apr 23 & May 20; unchanged |
Adj. Operating Margin | 24% to 25% | — | ~24.9% implied by consensus | Reiterated Apr 23 & May 20; unchanged |
Adj. EBITDA | $1.40B to $1.45B | — | N/A — not separately tracked in VA | Reiterated Apr 23 & May 20; unchanged |
Wizards Segment Revenue Growth | Mid-single digit FY; Q2 "quite robust" | — | ~+16% YoY Q2 consensus; FY $1.81B | Q2 guided strong; back half moderating; Q4 may be down on tough comps |
Wizards Operating Margin | Low-40% range FY | — | Consistent with guidance | Unchanged; high-royalty UB sets create mix headwind vs. owned IP |
Consumer Products Revenue Growth | Low-SD FY; Q2 low-SD (cyber impact) | — | ~+0.9% YoY Q2 consensus; FY $2.53B | ↓ Q2 lowered from low-DD to low-SD due to cyber; $40–60M shifts to Q3 |
Consumer Products Adj. Op. Margin | 6% to 8% FY | — | Consistent with guidance | Oil headwind (~$30M) offset by tariff favorability (~$15M good guy) and freight optimization |
Cyber Incident Costs | ~$20M one-time remediation opex (not in adj. EBITDA) | — | N/A | New disclosure May 20; systems back online by June; embedded in guidance |
Source: Hasbro Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 20, 2026); April 23, 2026 Pre-Announcement (8-K); Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Q2 estimates have drifted ~7% lower since the Q1 print on adj. EPS (from ~$1.13 to ~$1.05) as the Street absorbed the cyber-driven CP revenue shift and oil cost headwinds, but full-year estimates are essentially flat, confirming the market views Q2 softness as a timing issue rather than a structural demand problem; the gap between current consensus and guidance is narrow, leaving limited room for a negative surprise on the full year.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (c. May 28, 2026) | Current Consensus (July 20, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Last Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Net Revenue — Q2 2026 | $1,059.4M | $1,069.3M | +0.9% | Low-SD CP growth; Wizards robust | Unchanged | — | On track |
Net Revenue — FY 2026 | $4,991.9M | $4,992.5M | ~0.0% | +3–5% CC growth | Unchanged | — | ~+4% implied; within range |
Adj. EPS — Q2 2026 | $1.131 | $1.055 | −6.7% | Adj. op. margin 24–25% FY | Unchanged | — | Q2 below FY run-rate; back-half weighted |
Adj. EPS — FY 2026 | $6.030 | $5.989 | −0.7% | Adj. op. margin 24–25% FY | Unchanged | — | Essentially flat; guidance intact |
Magic Revenue — Q2 2026 | $464.9M | $478.9M | +3.0% | Wizards mid-SD FY; Q2 "quite robust" | Unchanged | — | Estimates moving up; mgmt. commentary bullish |
Magic Revenue — FY 2026 | $1,723.7M | $1,807.8M | +4.9% | Wizards mid-SD FY | Unchanged | — | Estimates rising; Street gaining confidence in Magic durability |
Consumer Products Revenue — Q2 2026 | $447.5M | $446.5M | −0.2% | CP low-SD FY; Q2 low-SD (cyber) | Unchanged | — | Stable; cyber impact already in estimates |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline uses consensus as of approximately May 28, 2026 (5 trading days after May 20, 2026 earnings). Current consensus as of July 20, 2026. Guidance from Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 20, 2026) and April 23, 2026 pre-announcement.
The most notable revision dynamic is the divergence between Q2 adj. EPS (down ~7%) and FY adj. EPS (essentially flat): the Street has absorbed the cyber-driven Q2 headwind without cutting the full year, which is consistent with management's framing of the incident as a pure timing shift. Magic FY estimates have actually moved higher (+4.9%) since the Q1 print, reflecting growing Street conviction in the Universes Beyond slate (Marvel Super Heroes, The Hobbit, Star Trek) sustaining momentum through the year.
Key Takeaway: HAS has underperformed both XLY and the S&P 500 since the Q1 print, with the decline driven almost entirely by multiple compression (NTM EV/EBITDA contracted from ~11x to ~9.5x, a ~14% de-rating) rather than estimate cuts, suggesting sentiment-driven selling rather than fundamental deterioration — which sets up a potentially asymmetric reaction if Q2 results confirm the cyber impact was indeed transitory.
HAS vs. XLY vs. S&P 500 — Indexed Performance Since Q1 2026 Earnings (May 20, 2026 = 100)
Date | HAS (Indexed) | XLY (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) |
May 20, 2026 (Q1 Earnings) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
May 27, 2026 | 99.3 | 103.1 | 101.3 |
Jun 5, 2026 | 95.0 | 97.4 | 99.5 |
Jun 15, 2026 | 95.9 | 100.5 | 101.8 |
Jun 30, 2026 | 93.2 | 99.4 | 100.7 |
Jul 8, 2026 (Trough) | 85.6 | 97.8 | 100.6 |
Jul 17, 2026 | 92.0 | 97.9 | 100.3 |
Jul 21, 2026 (Pre-Earnings) | 92.1 | 97.2 | 100.1 |
Sector ETF used: XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) — appropriate given HAS's classification as a consumer discretionary company (toys, games, entertainment). Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).
Performance Summary: From the Q1 2026 earnings date (May 20, 2026) through July 21, 2026, HAS declined approximately −8% on an indexed basis, versus XLY down ~3% and SPY essentially flat (+0.1%). The stock hit a trough around July 7–8 (indexed ~85.6) before recovering modestly into the print. The underperformance is consistent with the stock performance decomposition data showing NTM EV/EBITDA contracting from ~11.0x (3 months ago) to ~9.5x currently — a ~14% multiple de-rating — while EPS estimates are essentially flat, confirming that multiple compression, not estimate cuts, drove the drawdown. Key events during the period: (1) April 23 pre-announcement (positive — stock surged pre-Q1 print); (2) May 20 Q1 earnings call — stock declined modestly as the beat had been pre-priced; (3) July 9 — adult Play-Doh launch (minor positive); (4) July 13 — Mattel/Hasbro M&A speculation (brief +3% intraday). The stock enters Q2 earnings at a lower multiple and with lower sentiment, which is a more constructive setup than it was at the Q1 print.
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the confirmation that Secrets of Strixhaven surpassed Lorwyn Eclipsed as the largest Magic Premier set ever (disclosed on the May 20 call), which de-risks the Q2 Wizards revenue line; the cybersecurity incident's Q2 revenue timing impact is the primary known headwind but is already in estimates.
Key Takeaway: No direct public peer (Mattel, JAKKS Pacific) has yet reported Q2 2026 results as of July 20, 2026 (Mattel reports later in July; JAKKS Pacific has announced its Q2 call but not yet reported). However, Q1 2026 earnings calls from Mattel and JAKKS Pacific (both reported in late April 2026) contained forward-looking commentary explicitly about Q2 2026 conditions that qualifies as current-quarter read-through. Additionally, Circana industry data through April 2026 provides a direct industry read-through. All commentary below is strictly from the May 20–July 20, 2026 disclosure window or from Q1 2026 earnings calls (April 29–April 30, 2026) where management explicitly addressed Q2 2026 conditions.
Disclosure Window Note: Per the user's instruction, this section applies a strict May 20–July 20, 2026 window for post-earnings commentary, and separately includes Q1 2026 earnings call commentary (April 29–May 7, 2026) only where management explicitly addressed Q2 2026 forward conditions. Commentary about Q1 2025 results or prior-period performance is excluded.
Note: The following data points are from industry sources and broader market data, not from direct toy/game peer earnings commentary. They are labeled separately per the user's instruction.
Overall Peer/Industry Read-Through Assessment: The weight of evidence from peer commentary and industry data is net positive for HAS Q2: (1) U.S. toy industry is growing strongly through April, with games/collectibles leading; (2) Mattel confirmed Q2 shipping acceleration and stabilizing retailer ordering patterns; (3) entertainment-licensed products are driving strong sell-through across the industry; (4) oil cost headwinds are an industry-wide issue, not HAS-specific, and appear more back-half weighted. The primary risk flagged by peers (JAKKS) is U.S. retailer caution, which is a known headwind for HAS Consumer Products but is already embedded in the low-SD Q2 CP guidance.
Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or discretionary sales were identified for HAS in the period from the Q1 2026 earnings date (May 20, 2026) through July 20, 2026 based on available SEC Form 4 data. The absence of insider buying ahead of earnings is not unusual given the company's active share repurchase program (initiated in Q1 2026), which serves as the primary capital return mechanism. No clustered buys or unusual sale activity stands out as a signal.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date | Note |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | No open-market buys or discretionary sales identified for HAS in the May 20 – July 20, 2026 window per SEC Form 4 data. |
Note: The SEC Form 4 insider transaction database was queried for HAS open-market purchases (code P) and sales (code S) from May 20, 2026 through July 20, 2026. No matching transactions were returned. The company initiated a share repurchase program in Q1 2026 (announced May 20, 2026 earnings call), which represents the primary form of capital return and insider alignment signal. Absence of insider selling is a mild positive; absence of insider buying is neutral given the buyback program.