Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is constructive — consensus is a manageable bar, the macro tone has improved since April, and Cadence integration execution has been flawless, but the wildcard is whether NIM can surprise to the upside as elevated liquidity is unwound and Cadence deposit costs are optimized post-conversion.

Heading into Q2 2026, HBAN's setup is the most constructive it has been in several quarters. The bar is reasonable: consensus expects operating EPS of ~$0.39 and NII of ~$2.09B, both representing meaningful step-ups from Q1's $0.37 and $1.89B driven by the first full quarter of Cadence.

Management's tone has shifted materially since the April print — at the June 9 Morgan Stanley conference, the CFO explicitly stated the macro environment looks more favorable than it did in April, with pipelines described as strong and customer behavior as rational and predictable, a sharp contrast to the macro caution that drove the Q1 NII guidance revision to the low end of the range. Estimate revisions have been broadly stable since the Q1 print, with NII consensus for Q2 at ~$2.09B (slightly below the $2.10B as-of-April baseline), suggesting the Street has not yet fully priced in the CFO's more constructive June commentary or the potential NIM uplift from unwinding ~$4B of excess Fed cash. The stock has outperformed both KRE (+8.6% vs. +8.0%) and the S&P 500 (+5.5%) since the Q1 print, reflecting improving sentiment around integration execution and the 2027 EPS target, but the multiple remains at a discount to history, leaving room for re-rating if Q2 delivers. The single biggest wildcard is

NIM trajectory: the Cadence systems conversion completed in June, unlocking the opportunity to optimize higher-cost Cadence deposit buckets in Q3 and beyond, and if management signals accelerating NIM expansion toward the 'high 3.20s' exit rate with upside from liquidity normalization, the stock could re-rate meaningfully on the print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar — NII of ~$2.09B reflects the first full Cadence quarter but does not yet embed the CFO's more constructive June tone on NIM. Fee income is the bigger swing factor: Q1 delivered a record capital markets quarter and guidance was raised 4pp; any continuation of that momentum could drive a meaningful beat on the revenue line.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All YoY comparisons are inflated by the Cadence acquisition (closed Q4 2025); organic growth rates are materially lower.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top 2 KPIs: Operating EPS and Net Interest Income (NII)

Pattern: HBAN has beaten on Operating EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters (with the Q4 2025 miss driven by acquisition-related noise), and has consistently beaten or met NII estimates in 3 of 4 quarters; the track record supports a slight upward bias to consensus heading into Q2 2026. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has not been formally revised since the Q1 print, but management's tone has shifted meaningfully more constructive at the June conferences — the CFO's comment that the macro environment looks more favorable than in April is the most important post-earnings signal and is not yet reflected in consensus.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been broadly stable since the Q1 print, with NII for Q2 2026 drifting slightly lower (-0.4%) and fee income estimates holding firm. The gap between management's constructive June tone and flat consensus revisions represents a potential positive catalyst if Q2 delivers on the NIM/NII upside the CFO signaled.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Baseline as of April 28, 2026 (5 trading days post Q1 2026 earnings). Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print, suggesting the Street has not yet incorporated the CFO's more constructive June commentary on macro and NIM trajectory.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: HBAN has outperformed both KRE (+8.6% vs. +8.0%) and the S&P 500 (+5.5%) since the Q1 2026 earnings print, driven by improving sentiment around integration execution and the constructive June conference commentary — the re-rating has been multiple-driven rather than estimate-driven, as consensus has been broadly flat.

HBAN vs. KRE (Regional Bank ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings Date (April 23, 2026). Vertical dotted lines mark the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 28) and Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 9), where management delivered constructive commentary on macro and NIM trajectory. Source: Stock Price Data.

HBAN opened Q2 2026 at $16.83 on April 23 (earnings day) and has rallied to $18.27 as of July 22, a gain of +8.6%. The stock initially drifted lower through mid-May (touching ~$15.35 on May 13) as investors digested the NII guidance revision to the low end of the range, before recovering sharply through June and July. The inflection point coincided with the Morgan Stanley conference (June 9), where the CFO's explicit statement that the macro environment looks more favorable than in April catalyzed a re-rating. KRE also rallied strongly (+8.0%) over the same period, suggesting sector tailwinds from improving rate expectations and strong peer earnings, but HBAN's modest outperformance reflects company-specific confidence in integration execution. The stock's current level of ~$18.27 implies a P/E of approximately 11.3x on FY2026 consensus EPS of $1.61 and 9.6x on FY2027 consensus of $1.90 — a discount to the regional bank peer group that management has explicitly flagged as frustrating, and which could compress further if Q2 delivers on the NIM/fee upside story.

6. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peers reporting Q2 2026 results (PNC, MTB, KEY, USB, TFC, RF, FITB, CFG) and mid-quarter conferences (May–June 2026) paint a broadly constructive picture for HBAN: NII is expanding across the group driven by fixed-rate asset repricing and loan growth, fee income is accelerating (especially capital markets), credit quality is benign-to-improving, and deposit costs are stable-to-declining. The read-through is positive for HBAN's Q2 print, with the key debate being whether HBAN's NIM can surprise to the upside given the Cadence conversion and liquidity normalization opportunity.

Sources: Q2 2026 earnings call transcripts (PNC July 15, MTB July 15, KEY July 21, USB July 16, TFC July 17, RF July 17, FITB July 17, CFG July 16); Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference transcripts (TFC, RF, KEY, PNC, USB, FITB, CFG, MTB — June 9–10, 2026); Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference transcripts (TFC, CFG — May 28–29, 2026).

Theme 1: NII & NIM — Broad-Based Expansion; HBAN Has Incremental Upside Levers

What peers said: NII expansion was a universal theme across Q2 2026 reporters. KEY raised its full-year NII guidance to +9–11% YoY and expects to exit 2026 with NIM at ~3.05%, driven by fixed-rate asset repricing and commercial loan growth. PNC reported NII of $4.1B (+4% linked quarter) and guided Q3 NII up 3–3.5%, with full-year NII expected +15–15.5% (inclusive of First Bank acquisition). USB reported NII up 7.5% YoY and guided full-year NII 'north of 5%.' FITB raised full-year NII guidance to $8.74–$8.80B and guided Q3 NII up 2–2.5%, citing fixed-rate asset repricing and the Comerica acquisition. CFG reported NII up 4.4% linked quarter and guided Q3 NII up 2.5–3.5%. RF reported NII up 2% linked quarter with NIM at 3.66%, guiding full-year NII growth of 2.5–4%. MTB reported NII up 2% linked quarter with NIM stable at 3.70%, guiding full-year NII to the lower half of $7.2–7.35B. TFC was the outlier, cutting full-year NII guidance to +1–1.5% (from +2–3%) due to portfolio optimization and deposit mix headwinds.

HBAN read-through: The peer group's NII expansion is driven by the same tailwinds HBAN has — fixed-rate asset repricing and loan growth — but HBAN has two incremental levers peers do not: (1) the Cadence deposit cost optimization opportunity post-June conversion (management flagged this as a Q3 tailwind at the June MS conference), and (2) the potential to unwind ~$4B of excess Fed cash that has been mechanically suppressing reported NIM by ~5 bps. If HBAN's Q2 NIM comes in at or above the 3.245% consensus and management guides to accelerating NIM expansion in H2, the read-through from peers suggests this is achievable and would be well-received by the market.

Theme 2: Loan Growth — Broad-Based Strength; Commercial Leading

What peers said: Commercial loan growth was strong and broad-based across the peer group in Q2 2026. PNC reported average loans up 4% linked quarter (virtually all CNI), raising full-year average loan growth guidance to ~12.5%. KEY raised full-year average loan guidance to +4–5% (from +2–4%), with commercial loans expected up 8–10% for the year. USB reported average loans up 7.1% YoY and 3.0% linked quarter, with pipelines described as 'very good.' MTB reported average loans up $3B to $141.4B, the strongest quarterly growth since 2012 (ex-acquisitions), with CNI described as having 'the best quarter you could probably ever have.' FITB reported period-end loans up 1% sequentially. CFG reported average loans up 2% and period-end loans up 3% linked quarter. RF reported average loans up ~2% linked quarter, with pipelines up ~15% from a year ago. TFC reported average loans up 0.7% linked quarter, with commercial up 1.3% but consumer declining as the company exits less strategic portfolios.

HBAN read-through: The peer group's strong commercial loan growth is a positive read-through for HBAN, which guided to loan growth at the midpoint of its range (fine-tuned from the high end at Q1). HBAN's 8 new commercial specialty verticals (contributing ~30% of Q1 loan growth), the Carolinas de novo build-out, and the Texas/Southern expansion provide organic growth engines that peers lack. The broad-based commercial strength across the peer group suggests HBAN's pipeline commentary at the June conferences ('pipelines look really good, activity is strong') is consistent with the industry backdrop. Consensus expects Q2 loans of ~$190.6B, a modest sequential increase from Q1's $188.8B — achievable given the peer backdrop.

Theme 3: Deposit Costs — Stable to Declining; Competitive but Manageable

What peers said: Deposit cost trends were mixed but generally constructive. KEY reported deposit costs down 2 bps linked quarter to 1.63%, with cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta at 56%. MTB reported interest-bearing deposit costs down 2 bps to 1.95%, remixing from high-cost money market to lower-cost time deposits. RF reported interest-bearing deposit costs down 3 bps to 1.69%, with a 37% cumulative beta and stable costs expected in H2. FITB reported total deposit costs down 4 bps to 1.54%, with interest-bearing costs down 2 bps. CFG reported interest-bearing deposit costs up 4 bps and total deposit costs up 3 bps as loan demand strengthened, but DDA growth helped mitigate the increase. PNC reported interest-bearing deposit costs down 5 bps to 1.91%, with non-interest bearing deposits growing 4% linked quarter. TFC reported interest-bearing deposit costs up 1 bp to 1.45%, with DDA mix declining from ~27% to ~25% by year-end. USB reported deposit rates 'up a couple basis points.' The common theme: deposit costs are broadly stable to slightly declining, with competitive pressure manageable for banks with strong retail franchises.

HBAN read-through: HBAN's management acknowledged at the Bernstein conference (May 28) that deposit pricing will become 'a bit more challenging' in a higher-for-longer environment, but expressed confidence in competing effectively given its 56 distinct pricing regions and strong primary bank customer acquisition. The peer group's broadly stable deposit costs are a positive read-through — the competitive environment is not deteriorating materially. HBAN's specific opportunity is the Cadence deposit cost optimization post-conversion: management flagged this as a shorter-term opportunity to optimize higher-cost core and wholesale funding buckets in Q3, which could drive deposit cost improvement beyond what the peer group is experiencing.

Theme 4: Fee Income — Capital Markets Strength; Broad-Based Momentum

What peers said: Fee income was a standout positive across the peer group. PNC reported fee income up 10% linked quarter and 20% YoY, with record M&A advisory fees and capital markets up 25%; guided full-year non-interest income up ~9%. USB reported total fee income up 13.2% YoY, with capital markets (ex-Btig) up ~31% YoY; guided full-year fee income growth in the 'low teens.' KEY reported investment banking fees of $169M for Q2, with pipelines at historically elevated levels (up 9% sequentially, M&A pipelines up 7% to a new record); guided Q3 investment banking fees up 20%+ QoQ. MTB reported record fee income for Q2, with trust income up $14M and Bayview distribution of $47M. FITB reported adjusted non-interest income of $1.04B, with capital markets fees at $154M (annualized $600M run rate), wealth up 16% YoY, and commercial payments new line fee revenue up 35% YoY. CFG reported non-interest income up 8% linked quarter and 9% YoY, with capital markets delivering its 'strongest second quarter ever' (fees up 14% QoQ and 46% YoY). RF reported adjusted non-interest income up 7% linked quarter, with wealth management delivering another record quarter. TFC reported non-interest income up 17% YoY, with investment banking and trading up 72%; raised full-year non-interest income guidance to ~10% growth.

HBAN read-through: The peer group's capital markets strength is a strong positive read-through for HBAN, which delivered a record capital markets quarter in Q1 2026 (revenue ex-acquisitions up nearly 60% YoY) and raised fee income guidance by 4pp. HBAN's capital markets business is in early innings in Texas and the South, with management describing it as 'off to a very strong start.' The peer group's record or near-record capital markets quarters in Q2 suggest HBAN's momentum is likely to have continued. Consensus expects Q2 noninterest income of $734M vs. Q1's $682M — a sequential increase that appears achievable given the peer backdrop. Fee income is the KPI most likely to surprise to the upside.

Theme 5: Credit Quality — Benign and Improving; No Systemic Concerns

What peers said: Credit quality was broadly benign to improving across the peer group. PNC reported NCOs of 25 bps (down from prior quarter), with NPLs down 10% and delinquencies declining; no 'big pockets' of concern. KEY reported NCOs of 42 bps, at the low end of its 40–45 bps full-year outlook, with criticized loans stable and several NPLs expected to resolve. MTB reported NCOs of 23 bps (down from 31 bps), the ninth consecutive quarterly decline in commercial criticized loans; raised full-year NCO guidance to 37 bps (from prior range). FITB reported NCOs of 30 bps (down 7 bps), the lowest since Q2 2023; guided H2 NCOs of 30–35 bps. CFG reported NCOs of 37 bps (down from 39 bps), with non-accrual loans down 4% linked quarter. RF reported NCOs of 42 bps (down 12 bps), with credit described as 'largely normalized.' TFC reported NCOs of 50 bps (down 11 bps), with the allowance declining modestly. USB reported NCOs of 53 bps (down 3 bps), with NPAs improving 5 bps. The macro backdrop was described as 'stable' or 'constructive' by all reporters, with no systemic deterioration signals.

HBAN read-through: The peer group's benign credit environment is a positive read-through for HBAN, which has consistently delivered NCOs below the peer median and guided to 25–35 bps for the full year. Q1 NCOs were 26 bps; consensus expects Q2 at 26.4 bps — well within the guided range and consistent with the peer backdrop. HBAN's specific credit watch items (small FHA portfolio delinquencies, Austin multifamily) are idiosyncratic and manageable. The peer group's improving criticized loan trends and stable macro commentary support HBAN's credit outlook. No negative credit surprises are expected from the Q2 print.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the CFO's explicit statement at the June 9 Morgan Stanley conference that the macro environment looks more favorable than it did in April — a direct reversal of the macro caution that drove the Q1 NII guidance revision, and a signal that Q2 could deliver upside on NIM and loan growth.

• June 9, 2026 — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference: CFO Zachary Wasserman stated the macro environment 'looks more favorable in June than it did in April,' with customer behavior described as 'rational and predictable' and pipelines as 'strong.' Critically, CFO flagged that elevated liquidity (~$4B excess Fed cash) is 'likely to be reduced given macro stabilization,' providing additional NIM uplift potential. This is the single most important post-earnings signal and is not yet reflected in consensus estimates. Implication: positive for Q2 NIM and H2 NII trajectory.
• June 9, 2026 — Morgan Stanley Conference (NIM Detail): Management provided granular NIM guidance, expecting to exit 2026 in the 'high 3.20s' with continued expansion into 2027. Two key drivers: (1) fixed-rate asset repricing providing a 'larger and more sustainable benefit extending into 2027' due to long-end yield curve movements, and (2) Cadence deposit cost optimization post-conversion (Q3 opportunity). Implication: NIM trajectory is more constructive than the April guidance implied.
• June 2026 — Cadence Systems Conversion Completed: The Cadence systems conversion (described by management as their 'Super Bowl' moment) was completed in June, marking the final major integration milestone. This unlocks the full $365M Cadence expense synergy run-rate in Q4 2026 and enables the Cadence deposit cost optimization opportunity in Q3. Talent retention exceeded expectations (fewer than 10 departures from ~1,000 retention program participants). Implication: integration execution de-risks the 2027 EPS target and removes a key investor overhang.
• May 28, 2026 — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference: CEO Stephen Steinour expressed strong confidence in the 2027 EPS target: 'I feel really good about getting to $1.90–$1.92.' Digital consumer acquisition in the South running '10x the consumer customer acquisition rate that Cadence managed to average over time' in the first 6 weeks post-launch. Capital markets business described as 'off to a very strong start in Texas and other markets in the South.' Implication: revenue synergy execution is ahead of plan, supporting the fee income upside case.
• June 25, 2026 — Preferred Stock Dividend Declaration: Routine preferred dividend declaration (8-K filed). No change to common dividend or capital return posture. Implication: neutral; consistent with the $3B share repurchase authorization announced at Q1 earnings.
• July 8, 2026 — Q2 2026 Earnings Call Details Announced: HBAN announced the Q2 2026 earnings call details, confirming the reporting timeline. Implication: confirms imminent print; no pre-announcement or guidance update filed, suggesting results are within the guided range.
• Macro Context — Higher-for-Longer Rate Environment: The Fed funds rate has remained stable throughout 2026, with the forward curve implying flat-to-potentially-higher rates. CEO Steinour flagged at the Bernstein conference that deposit pricing will become 'a bit more challenging' in this environment, but also noted that the bank lending activity increase (which drives deposit demand) is a natural offset. Implication: modest headwind to deposit cost improvement, but manageable given HBAN's primary bank strategy and analytical pricing capabilities.
• Stablecoin / Digital Asset Strategy: Management views stablecoins as an opportunity rather than a threat, participating in three industry consortiums for tokenized deposit money movement standards. Management explicitly stated concerns about stablecoin disruption to deposit flows are 'a bit overblown.' Implication: no near-term deposit disruption risk; potential long-term revenue opportunity.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells by executives since the Q1 print — the only notable open-market activity is Director James Rollins III's purchase of preferred stock (not common equity) in late April, and a 10b5-1 planned sale by General Counsel Marcy Hingst in June. The absence of discretionary common stock sales by senior management heading into earnings is a mild positive signal, consistent with management's expressed confidence in the 2027 targets.

Summary: The only notable open-market common stock sale is Director Rollins' ~223,522 share sale on June 12 (no 10b5-1 plan flagged), which is worth monitoring but is a director rather than an executive officer. The two executive sales (Hingst and Kleinman) are both 10b5-1 plan sales and carry no discretionary signal. CEO Steinour's April transaction was a routine option exercise with tax withholding, and he retains approximately 1.46 million shares. The absence of discretionary common stock sales by the CEO, CFO, or other senior executives heading into earnings is consistent with management's expressed confidence in the 2027 targets. Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4 filings).