HCA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-24

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HCA Report Q2 Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$20.23B vs. cons ~$20.2B HIGH
HCA Report Q2 Adjusted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$7.59 (dil. $7.62) vs. cons ~$7.60 HIGH
HCA Report Q2 Adjusted EBITDA IN-LINE pred ~$4.03B vs. cons ~$4.03B HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$28.70-30.50 (mid $29.60) vs. cons ~$29.60 (FY2026) HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$15.40-16.10B (mid $15.75B) vs. cons ~$15.75B (FY2026) HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 Revenue guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$77.0-79.5B (mid $78.25B) vs. cons ~$78.2B (FY2026) MEDIUM
HCA Guide FY2026 ACA exchange headwind assumption UNCHANGED guide ~$1.0-1.2B vs. cons ~$1.1B (FY2026, already reset 7/14) MEDIUM
HCA Guide 2027 annualized EPTC/exchange headwind (call commentary — swing factor) UNKNOWN implied ~$1.5-2.0B annualized vs. cons ~$1.2B (FY2027) MEDIUM
HCA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% LOW
HCA Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (STABILIZE) All headline numbers and the FY26 guide cut were pre-announced 7/14 (stock -7% then +3.6% off the low into the print), so the call carries no new hard numbers — it is a pure narrative event. A modest day-1 relief tick is plausible as the flush is done, expectations are reset, and buybacks provide a floor. But the structural EPTC/uninsured overhang into 2027 and ongoing sector-wide estimate trims cap follow-through, while the completed flush limits further downside — net range-bound. Downside skew only if management previews a materially worse-than-feared 2027 exchange annualization. LOW