HCA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-24

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HCA Report Q2 2026 Revenue BEAT pred ~$20.23B vs. cons ~$19.45B HIGH
HCA Report Q2 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$7.59 vs. cons ~$7.46 HIGH
HCA Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin MISS pred ~19.9% vs. cons ~20.6% MEDIUM
HCA Guide FY2026 Diluted EPS Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$29.60 (mid of $28.70-30.50) vs. cons ~$29.65 (FY2026) HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$15.75B (mid of $15.4-16.1B) vs. cons ~$15.7B (FY2026) HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 ACA Exchange Headwind Assumption UNCHANGED guide ~$1.1B (mid of $1.0-1.2B) vs. cons ~$1.1B already reset post-preannouncement (FY2026) MEDIUM
HCA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.7% LOW
HCA Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.2% (FADE) With Q2 details and FY26 guidance already pre-announced on 7/14 (stock already down ~9%, consensus already reset), the call itself offers limited fresh surprise on the already-known numbers, so day-1 move should be muted/slightly positive on relief that nothing worse emerged. But over the following days, incremental color on the 2027 ACA exchange cliff (full EPTC expiration, no offsetting one-time Medicaid SPP catch-up expected to recur) likely prompts sell-side analysts to trim out-year (FY27) EPS estimates and price targets even without a fresh Q2 miss, producing a mild fade as the 'temporal vs. structural' debate tilts more structural in models. LOW