HCA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-24

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HCA Report Q2 2026 revenue BEAT pred ~$20.23B vs. cons $19.47B HIGH
HCA Report Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$4.027B vs. cons $3.950B HIGH
HCA Report Q2 2026 adjusted diluted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$7.59 vs. cons $7.53 HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 diluted EPS LOWER guide ~$29.60 vs. cons $30.36 (FY2026) HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 adjusted EBITDA LOWER guide ~$15.75B vs. cons $15.95B (FY2026) MEDIUM
HCA Guide FY2026 revenue UNCHANGED guide ~$78.25B vs. cons $78.60B (FY2026) HIGH
HCA Guide Health-insurance-exchange pretax headwind UNCHANGED guide ~$1.10B unfavorable vs. cons $1.10B unfavorable (FY2026) MEDIUM
HCA Guide Medicaid supplemental-payment benefit UNCHANGED guide ~$0.40B benefit vs. cons $0.40B benefit (FY2026) MEDIUM
HCA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
HCA Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) The preannounced Q2 beat and guidance reaffirmation should drive initial relief, but FY2026 EPS guidance of ~$29.60 vs. consensus $30.36 and an exchange headwind of ~$1.10B vs. a Medicaid benefit of only ~$0.40B imply downward 2027 estimate revisions after the call. MEDIUM