HCA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-24

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HCA Report Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$4.027B vs. cons $4.007B HIGH
HCA Report Diluted EPS operating (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$7.59 vs. cons $7.323 (low quality — DPP-driven) HIGH
HCA Report Same-store equiv. admissions growth (Q2 2026) BEAT pred +2.7% vs. cons +2.31% HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 Adj. EBITDA (FY2026) LOWER guide midpoint ~$15.75B vs. cons $15.839B HIGH
HCA Guide FY2026 EPS operating (FY2026) LOWER guide midpoint ~$29.60 vs. cons $29.998 HIGH
HCA Guide Exchange headwind tone (FY2026) UNCHANGED reaffirm ($1.0B)-($1.2B); risk of 'still dynamic' language MEDIUM
HCA Guide Q3 2026 qualitative EBITDA trajectory (Q3 2026) LOWER implied Q3 EBITDA ~$3.80B vs. cons $3.857B MEDIUM
HCA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% MEDIUM
HCA Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — consensus reset to guidance midpoint pulls FY EPS estimates down ~$0.40 over 5 days MEDIUM