HIG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HIG Report Core EPS BEAT pred ~$3.22 vs. cons $3.13 MEDIUM
HIG Report Business Insurance underlying combined ratio IN-LINE pred ~88.1% vs. cons 88.6% MEDIUM
HIG Report Personal Insurance combined ratio BEAT pred ~94.8% vs. cons 96.5% MEDIUM
HIG Guide Net investment income growth BETTER guide ~9.0% vs. cons 8.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
HIG Guide Business Insurance expense ratio BETTER guide ~30.7% vs. cons 30.8% (FY2026) MEDIUM
HIG Guide Business Insurance renewal pricing excluding workers' compensation UNCHANGED guide ~5.5% vs. cons 5.5% (2H2026) MEDIUM
HIG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.9% MEDIUM
HIG Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.7% (FADE) Day-5 residual ~+0.7% vs. day-1 residual +1.9%: favorable catastrophe experience and investment income support the initial beat, but slower commercial pricing and implicit 2027 core-EPS cuts from the Hartford Funds exclusion and stranded-cost assumptions limit estimate revisions and cause a partial fade. MEDIUM