{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.22 vs. cons $3.13",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Business Insurance underlying combined ratio",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~88.1% vs. cons 88.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Personal Insurance combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~94.8% vs. cons 96.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Net investment income growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~9.0% vs. cons 8.0% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Business Insurance expense ratio",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~30.7% vs. cons 30.8% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Business Insurance renewal pricing excluding workers' compensation",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~5.5% vs. cons 5.5% (2H2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.9,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.7,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Day-5 residual ~+0.7% vs. day-1 residual +1.9%: favorable catastrophe experience and investment income support the initial beat, but slower commercial pricing and implicit 2027 core-EPS cuts from the Hartford Funds exclusion and stranded-cost assumptions limit estimate revisions and cause a partial fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}