HIG Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HIG Report Core EPS BEAT pred ~$2.88 vs. cons $2.76 MEDIUM
HIG Report Business Insurance underlying combined ratio BEAT pred ~89.0% vs. cons 89.9% MEDIUM
HIG Report P&C catastrophe losses, pre-tax BEAT pred ~$185M vs. cons $225M LOW
HIG Guide FY26 net investment income BETTER guide ~$2.93B vs. cons $2.86B (FY26) MEDIUM
HIG Guide Business Insurance underlying combined ratio / margin commentary UNCHANGED guide ~89.5% vs. cons 89.6% (FY26) MEDIUM
HIG Guide 2Q26 share repurchases UNCHANGED guide ~$450M vs. cons $450M (2Q26) HIGH
HIG Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.4% MEDIUM
HIG Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.1% (FADE) The initial upside should be driven by a clean core-EPS beat, sub-consensus catastrophe losses and a better Business Insurance underlying ratio. The move likely fades as investors focus on the roughly unchanged FY26 underwriting-margin framework, moderating commercial pricing and the limited scope for out-period EPS revisions after a quarter aided by weather and investment-income variability. MEDIUM