| IBKR |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.64 vs. cons $0.62 |
MEDIUM |
| IBKR |
Report |
Net Interest Income |
BEAT |
pred ~$985M vs. cons ~$950M |
HIGH |
| IBKR |
Report |
Commission Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$560M vs. cons ~$530M |
HIGH |
| IBKR |
Guide |
NIM / NII trajectory (rate-cut sensitivity) |
LOWER |
guide NIM ~1.82% vs. cons ~1.88%; -$80M annualized NII per 25bp USD cut (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| IBKR |
Guide |
Pretax margin (ad/marketing ramp) |
LOWER |
guide pretax margin ~74% vs. cons ~76% (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| IBKR |
Guide |
Quarterly dividend |
UNCHANGED |
guide div ~$0.0875 vs. cons $0.0875 (2Q26) |
HIGH |
| IBKR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| IBKR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Q2 operating strength is already public via monthly metrics and was largely priced in the July 1 jump and the run to all-time highs (~$97 before easing to ~$91.70), so a well-telegraphed double-beat is a classic sell-the-news setup. The bigger swing factor — NII — faces out-period headwinds: NIM compression (1.88%→~1.82%) plus management's own sensitivity (~-$80M annualized NII per 25bp USD cut) means a dovish Fed path pulls 2H26/FY27 NII and EPS estimates down even after a Q2 beat, while softening commission-per-order and a marketing-spend margin drag reduce beat quality. Against a rich near-highs valuation, that biases the initial dip to follow through lower rather than recover. |
LOW |