{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.64 vs. cons $0.62",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Interest Income",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$985M vs. cons ~$950M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Commission Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$560M vs. cons ~$530M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "NIM / NII trajectory (rate-cut sensitivity)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide NIM ~1.82% vs. cons ~1.88%; -$80M annualized NII per 25bp USD cut (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Pretax margin (ad/marketing ramp)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide pretax margin ~74% vs. cons ~76% (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Quarterly dividend",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide div ~$0.0875 vs. cons $0.0875 (2Q26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 operating strength is already public via monthly metrics and was largely priced in the July 1 jump and the run to all-time highs (~$97 before easing to ~$91.70), so a well-telegraphed double-beat is a classic sell-the-news setup. The bigger swing factor \u2014 NII \u2014 faces out-period headwinds: NIM compression (1.88%\u2192~1.82%) plus management's own sensitivity (~-$80M annualized NII per 25bp USD cut) means a dovish Fed path pulls 2H26/FY27 NII and EPS estimates down even after a Q2 beat, while softening commission-per-order and a marketing-spend margin drag reduce beat quality. Against a rich near-highs valuation, that biases the initial dip to follow through lower rather than recover.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}