IBKR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
IBKR Report GAAP diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.66 vs. cons $0.61 HIGH
IBKR Report Total net revenues BEAT pred ~$1.78B vs. cons $1.66B HIGH
IBKR Report Net interest income BEAT pred ~$980M vs. cons $930M MEDIUM
IBKR Guide FY2026 EPS run-rate implied by H1 trend BETTER guide ~$2.60 vs. cons $2.46 (FY2026) MEDIUM
IBKR Guide Q2 pretax margin (seasonal comp step-up) LOWER guide ~74% vs. cons/prior-quarter run-rate 77% (Q2 2026) MEDIUM
IBKR Guide NII rate-sensitivity disclosure (25bp USD cut impact) UNCHANGED guide ~$80M annualized hit vs. prior guide $80M (forward-looking, per 25bp cut) LOW
IBKR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
IBKR Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.6% (FADE) Monthly DARTs/margin-loan disclosures already pre-telegraphed most of the top-line beat, so the initial pop should be muted rather than explosive; with shares up ~69% over the past year and trading near all-time highs into the print, any softness in Q2 pretax margin (seasonal comp/FICA step-up from 77% in Q1) or measured commentary on marketing spend/cash-yield competition could prompt profit-taking over the week even as full-year EPS estimates get revised modestly higher, pulling the initial idiosyncratic gain back toward flat by day 5. LOW