{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "GAAP diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.66 vs. cons $0.61",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total net revenues",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.78B vs. cons $1.66B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net interest income",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$980M vs. cons $930M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 EPS run-rate implied by H1 trend",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.60 vs. cons $2.46 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 pretax margin (seasonal comp step-up)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~74% vs. cons/prior-quarter run-rate 77% (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "NII rate-sensitivity disclosure (25bp USD cut impact)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$80M annualized hit vs. prior guide $80M (forward-looking, per 25bp cut)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.6,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Monthly DARTs/margin-loan disclosures already pre-telegraphed most of the top-line beat, so the initial pop should be muted rather than explosive; with shares up ~69% over the past year and trading near all-time highs into the print, any softness in Q2 pretax margin (seasonal comp/FICA step-up from 77% in Q1) or measured commentary on marketing spend/cash-yield competition could prompt profit-taking over the week even as full-year EPS estimates get revised modestly higher, pulling the initial idiosyncratic gain back toward flat by day 5.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}