IBKR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
IBKR Report Adjusted diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.64 vs. cons $0.61 MEDIUM
IBKR Report Commission revenue BEAT pred ~$645M vs. cons $628M MEDIUM
IBKR Report Net interest income BEAT pred ~$922M vs. cons $907M MEDIUM
IBKR Guide Quarterly net new customer accounts / customer-acquisition commentary BETTER guide ~350k net new accounts vs. cons 320k (3Q26) MEDIUM
IBKR Guide Annualized NII sensitivity to a 25-bp decline in relevant short-term rates BETTER guide ~$105M annual NII headwind vs. cons $115M (2H26 run-rate) LOW
IBKR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.5% MEDIUM
IBKR Return 5-day cumulative residual +6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A broad beat across EPS, commissions, and NII would pair with stronger account-acquisition commentary, supporting upward revisions to 2H26 and 2027 earnings despite the lower-rate backdrop; pred +6.5% vs. cons +2.0% (5-day residual). MEDIUM