| IBM |
Report |
Q2 Revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$17.2B vs. cons ~$17.86B |
HIGH |
| IBM |
Report |
Q2 Operating (non-GAAP) EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$2.93 vs. cons ~$3.01 |
HIGH |
| IBM |
Report |
Software revenue growth (y/y) |
MISS |
pred ~+5% vs. cons ~+10% |
HIGH |
| IBM |
Guide |
FY26 constant-currency revenue growth |
LOWER |
guide ~2-3% vs. cons ~5%+ (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Guide |
FY26 Free cash flow |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$13.5B vs. cons ~$13.0B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Guide |
FY26 Software revenue growth |
LOWER |
guide ~7-8% vs. cons ~10%+ (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Guide |
FY26 Operating pre-tax margin expansion |
LOWER |
guide ~+50bps vs. cons ~+100bps (FY2026) |
LOW |
| IBM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+4.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.0% (STABILIZE) |
The Q2 miss is already pre-announced and the stock is down ~31% from its July 7 peak, so downside is largely discounted. A credible call that reaffirms ~$13.5B FCF (dividend/valuation floor intact) and frames the shortfall as fixable deal-slippage/z17 timing should trigger an oversold relief bounce on day 1. But out-period math is negative: FY revenue (~2-3% cc vs 5%+) and software (~7-8% vs 10%+) guides get cut, pulling estimates down even off the low base, and structural AI-capex-crowding plus activist/break-up overhang cap follow-through. Net: initial bounce holds but does not extend — stabilize. |
LOW |