{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$17.2B vs. cons ~$17.86B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Operating (non-GAAP) EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.93 vs. cons ~$3.01",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Software revenue growth (y/y)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~+5% vs. cons ~+10%",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 constant-currency revenue growth",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~2-3% vs. cons ~5%+ (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Free cash flow",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$13.5B vs. cons ~$13.0B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Software revenue growth",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~7-8% vs. cons ~10%+ (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Operating pre-tax margin expansion",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~+50bps vs. cons ~+100bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 4.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "The Q2 miss is already pre-announced and the stock is down ~31% from its July 7 peak, so downside is largely discounted. A credible call that reaffirms ~$13.5B FCF (dividend/valuation floor intact) and frames the shortfall as fixable deal-slippage/z17 timing should trigger an oversold relief bounce on day 1. But out-period math is negative: FY revenue (~2-3% cc vs 5%+) and software (~7-8% vs 10%+) guides get cut, pulling estimates down even off the low base, and structural AI-capex-crowding plus activist/break-up overhang cap follow-through. Net: initial bounce holds but does not extend \u2014 stabilize.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}