| IBM |
Report |
Q2 2026 Revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$17.2B vs. cons ~$17.86B |
HIGH |
| IBM |
Report |
Q2 2026 Operating (non-GAAP) EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$2.93 vs. cons ~$3.01 |
HIGH |
| IBM |
Report |
Q2 2026 Infrastructure segment revenue growth |
MISS |
pred ~-7% vs. cons ~+6% |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Guide |
FY2026 revenue growth (constant currency) |
LOWER |
guide ~3% vs. cons ~5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Guide |
FY2026 Free Cash Flow |
LOWER |
guide ~$12.5B vs. cons ~$13.5B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Guide |
FY2026 Software segment revenue growth |
LOWER |
guide ~7% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| IBM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
Headline Q2 numbers are stale (pre-announced July 14), so day-1 reaction hinges on incremental info: if Krishna/Kavanaugh show deal slippage recovering in July and avoid a full guide-down (only trimming, not gutting, FY26 constant-currency growth/FCF/software targets), the stock — down 33% from June highs and already pricing a worse outcome than management's own framing (per Mizuho) — is set up for a relief bounce. However, over the following days sell-side analysts will formalize FY26/FY27 model cuts (Infrastructure reset, Software deceleration from 10%+ to high-single-digit, deal-timing risk) even against a 'not-as-bad-as-feared' tone, and unresolved structural overhangs (activist/breakup speculation, AI-disintermediation debate, HSBC's 'synthetic IBM' framing) keep target-price and EPS revisions net negative, causing the initial pop to fade as consensus 2026/2027 estimates converge downward toward the new lower base. |
LOW |