{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$17.2B vs. cons ~$17.86B",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Operating (non-GAAP) EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.93 vs. cons ~$3.01",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Infrastructure segment revenue growth",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-7% vs. cons ~+6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 revenue growth (constant currency)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~3% vs. cons ~5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Free Cash Flow",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$12.5B vs. cons ~$13.5B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Software segment revenue growth",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~7% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Headline Q2 numbers are stale (pre-announced July 14), so day-1 reaction hinges on incremental info: if Krishna/Kavanaugh show deal slippage recovering in July and avoid a full guide-down (only trimming, not gutting, FY26 constant-currency growth/FCF/software targets), the stock \u2014 down 33% from June highs and already pricing a worse outcome than management's own framing (per Mizuho) \u2014 is set up for a relief bounce. However, over the following days sell-side analysts will formalize FY26/FY27 model cuts (Infrastructure reset, Software deceleration from 10%+ to high-single-digit, deal-timing risk) even against a 'not-as-bad-as-feared' tone, and unresolved structural overhangs (activist/breakup speculation, AI-disintermediation debate, HSBC's 'synthetic IBM' framing) keep target-price and EPS revisions net negative, causing the initial pop to fade as consensus 2026/2027 estimates converge downward toward the new lower base.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}