IBM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
IBM Report Q2 revenue IN-LINE pred ~$17.20B vs. cons $17.20B HIGH
IBM Report Q2 adjusted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$2.93 vs. cons $2.93 HIGH
IBM Report Q2 Software revenue growth IN-LINE pred ~5.0% vs. cons 5.0% HIGH
IBM Guide Constant-currency revenue growth LOWER guide ~3.5% vs. cons 4.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
IBM Guide Software revenue growth LOWER guide ~7.0% vs. cons 8.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
IBM Guide Free cash flow LOWER guide ~$14.8B vs. cons $15.2B (FY2026) MEDIUM
IBM Guide Operating pretax-margin expansion LOWER guide ~50 bps vs. cons 70 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
IBM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.5% MEDIUM
IBM Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) The reported quarter is already priced in, but guidance near 3.5% constant-currency revenue growth and 7.0% Software growth versus consensus of 4.0% and 8.0% would force second-half and FY2027 estimate cuts. Free cash flow near $14.8B versus $15.2B consensus would weaken the valuation floor, allowing negative revisions to drive additional downside after day 1. MEDIUM