IBM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
IBM Report 2Q26 revenue MISS pred ~$17.20B vs. cons $17.86B HIGH
IBM Report 2Q26 operating EPS MISS pred ~$2.93 vs. cons $3.01 HIGH
IBM Report 2Q26 software revenue growth MISS pred ~5.0% vs. cons 7.0% HIGH
IBM Guide FY26 constant-currency revenue growth LOWER guide ~3.5% vs. cons 5.0% (FY26) MEDIUM
IBM Guide FY26 free cash flow LOWER guide ~$14.7B vs. cons $15.7B (FY26) MEDIUM
IBM Guide FY26 software revenue growth LOWER guide ~8.0% vs. cons 10.0% (FY26) MEDIUM
IBM Guide FY26 consulting revenue growth LOWER guide ~1.0% vs. cons 3.0% (FY26) MEDIUM
IBM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -7.5% MEDIUM
IBM Return 5-day cumulative residual -11.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Follow-through lower: pred FY26 revenue growth ~3.5% vs. prior 5.0% and FCF ~$14.7B vs. ~$15.7B imply substantial 2H and out-period estimate cuts, while a ~5.0% software-growth print vs. 7.0% consensus weakens confidence that the Z/Transaction Processing shortfall is purely timing. MEDIUM