IBM Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
IBM Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$17.20B vs. cons $17.83B HIGH
IBM Report Op EPS (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$2.93 vs. cons $2.976 HIGH
IBM Report Software Revenue (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$7.76B vs. cons $8.20B HIGH
IBM Guide FY 2026 Revenue (FY26) LOWER guide ~$69.6-70.2B vs. cons $71.45B HIGH
IBM Guide FY 2026 FCF (FY26) LOWER guide ~$14.5-15.0B vs. cons $15.85B MEDIUM
IBM Guide Software Growth FY26 LOWER guide ~7-8% vs. cons ~10% HIGH
IBM Guide Op PTI Margin Expansion FY26 UNCHANGED guide ~1pt vs. cons ~1pt MEDIUM
IBM Guide Consulting Trajectory FY26 UNCHANGED guide low-to-mid SD maintained vs. cons MEDIUM
IBM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -5.0% MEDIUM
IBM Return 5-day cumulative residual -7.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — sell-side estimate cuts pull stock lower as FY models reprice; no catalyst to reverse until H2 data MEDIUM