INTC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
INTC Report Q2'26 Revenue BEAT pred ~$15.0B vs. cons ~$14.6B MEDIUM
INTC Report Q2'26 Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$0.31 vs. cons ~$0.25 MEDIUM
INTC Report Q2'26 Non-GAAP Gross Margin IN-LINE pred ~39.5% vs. cons ~39.5% MEDIUM
INTC Guide Q3'26 Revenue guide BETTER guide ~$15.5B vs. cons ~$15.0B (Q3'26) MEDIUM
INTC Guide Q3'26 Non-GAAP Gross Margin guide (18A dilution + memory/substrate cost inflation) LOWER guide ~38% vs. cons ~40.5% (Q3'26) MEDIUM
INTC Guide DCAI (Data Center) revenue outlook BETTER guide ~$6.0B (up dbl-digit QoQ) vs. cons ~$5.7B (Q3'26) LOW
INTC Guide Intel Foundry external traction / 14A + Apple/Fortinet UNKNOWN ext. foundry rev ~$0.2B vs. cons ~$0.3B; op loss ~-$2.3B vs. cons ~-$2.1B (Q2'26) LOW
INTC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -6.0% LOW
INTC Return 5-day cumulative residual -9.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Stock has ~4x'd since March on the govt-stake/foundry-story re-rating and sits at a stretched ~$450B cap (beta ~3.7, 5.8% daily vol), so a routine 7th-straight beat is fully priced. The swing factor is the 2H margin path: a Q3 non-GAAP GM guide cut on 18A mix dilution and memory/substrate cost inflation forces analysts to trim out-period EPS even after a top-line beat. That negative revision math, layered on a 'buy-the-rumor (Apple/Fortinet foundry), sell-the-news' setup 27% off the June peak, drives a negative day-1 residual that follows through over the week as estimates reset lower; only a concrete large 14A/Apple design-win commitment would flip it to stabilize. LOW