INTC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
INTC Report Q2 2026 Revenue BEAT pred ~$14.7B vs. cons $14.42B MEDIUM
INTC Report Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$0.25 vs. cons $0.21 MEDIUM
INTC Report Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin BEAT pred ~40.0% vs. cons ~39.0% MEDIUM
INTC Guide Q3 2026 Revenue Guidance BETTER guide ~$14.9B vs. cons ~$14.6B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
INTC Guide Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin Guidance LOWER guide ~38.5% vs. cons ~39.5% (Q3 2026, memory/substrate cost inflation) MEDIUM
INTC Guide FY2026 CapEx / Free Cash Flow Outlook UNCHANGED guide ~$18B capex flat YoY, reiterate positive FY FCF vs. cons ~$18.5B capex (FY2026) LOW
INTC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% LOW
INTC Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) Stock already ran +8.6% the session before print and is up 326% TTM, so even a clean beat-and-raise is largely priced in ('priced for perfection' per strategists, GuruFocus flagging ~273% overvaluation). A headline beat likely triggers an initial pop, but out-period math (persistent Foundry operating losses, rising memory/substrate costs flagged as a 2H headwind, and lack of a hard anchor customer commitment beyond Fortinet) gives sell-side room to trim FY26/FY27 margin and EPS estimates even after a Q2 beat, causing the initial move to fade over the following days as investors rotate out of a name with limited multiple upside left. LOW