KEY Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
KEY Report EPS (diluted) BEAT pred ~$0.44 vs. cons $0.42 MEDIUM
KEY Report Net interest income (TE) BEAT pred ~$1.19B vs. cons ~$1.16B MEDIUM
KEY Report IB & debt placement fees MISS pred ~$177M vs. cons ~$181M MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY2026 NII growth BETTER guide ~+9–10% (nudged to top/+10%) vs. cons ~+9% (FY2026) MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY2026 exit NIM UNCHANGED guide ~3.05% vs. cons ~3.03% (exit-4Q2026) MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY2026 avg loan growth UNCHANGED guide ~+2–4% total / +6–8% commercial vs. cons ~+3% (FY2026) MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY2026 IB fee growth UNCHANGED guide ~mid-single-digit off ~$780M vs. cons ~+5% (FY2026) LOW
KEY Guide FY2026 buyback BETTER guide ~≥$1.3B (floor, ~$300M+/qtr) vs. cons ~$1.3B (FY2026) LOW
KEY Guide Provision / credit BETTER pred provision ~$110M vs. cons ~$120M (Q2 y/y favorable vs $138M) LOW
KEY Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.2% LOW
KEY Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.2% (FADE) NII beat and a reaffirmed/nudged-up FY NII-NIM guide likely spark a modest day-1 pop, but a fully re-rated stock near multi-year highs (up ~24% off the March low) with a negative Zacks ESP and estimates already drifting lower ($0.44→$0.42) caps upside. IB fees guided/printing below Street and the middle-market M&A overhang give analysts reason to trim out-period fee estimates even after a headline beat, so the initial gain fades toward flat. LOW