| KEY |
Report |
Diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.44 vs. cons $0.42 |
MEDIUM |
| KEY |
Report |
Net Interest Margin (TE) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~2.95% vs. cons ~2.93% |
MEDIUM |
| KEY |
Report |
IB & Debt Placement Fees |
BEAT |
pred ~$185M vs. cons ~$178M |
MEDIUM |
| KEY |
Guide |
FY2026 NII growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~9.5% vs. cons ~9.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| KEY |
Guide |
FY2026 exit NIM guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~3.05% vs. cons ~3.02% (Q4 2026 exit) |
MEDIUM |
| KEY |
Guide |
FY2026 average commercial loan growth guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~7% vs. cons ~6% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| KEY |
Guide |
FY2026 share buyback plan |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.3B vs. prior/cons ~$1.3B (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| KEY |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.9% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| KEY |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.3% (FADE) |
KEY has already rallied ~46% y/y and sits near 52-week highs with a Moderate-Buy consensus already pricing in continued beats, so a modest EPS/IB-fee beat plus a reaffirmed (not raised) 9-10% NII/3.05% NIM guide is unlikely to spark meaningful forward EPS revisions beyond the initial pop — the sequential IB fee step-down was already guided and priced, limiting fee-driven upside to out-quarter estimates. Additionally, the July 28-29 FOMC decision lands just days after the print with a genuinely split committee (9-8) on a possible 2026 hike, creating asymmetric event risk that historically causes bank-stock gains to fade into the following week as investors de-risk ahead of a hawkish surprise that would pressure the NIM glide path management has guided to. |
LOW |