{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.44 vs. cons $0.42",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Interest Margin (TE)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~2.95% vs. cons ~2.93%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "IB & Debt Placement Fees",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$185M vs. cons ~$178M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 NII growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~9.5% vs. cons ~9.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 exit NIM guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3.05% vs. cons ~3.02% (Q4 2026 exit)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 average commercial loan growth guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~7% vs. cons ~6% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 share buyback plan",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.3B vs. prior/cons ~$1.3B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.9,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.3,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "KEY has already rallied ~46% y/y and sits near 52-week highs with a Moderate-Buy consensus already pricing in continued beats, so a modest EPS/IB-fee beat plus a reaffirmed (not raised) 9-10% NII/3.05% NIM guide is unlikely to spark meaningful forward EPS revisions beyond the initial pop \u2014 the sequential IB fee step-down was already guided and priced, limiting fee-driven upside to out-quarter estimates. Additionally, the July 28-29 FOMC decision lands just days after the print with a genuinely split committee (9-8) on a possible 2026 hike, creating asymmetric event risk that historically causes bank-stock gains to fade into the following week as investors de-risk ahead of a hawkish surprise that would pressure the NIM glide path management has guided to.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}