KEY Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
KEY Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.43 vs. cons $0.42 MEDIUM
KEY Report Net interest income, taxable-equivalent IN-LINE pred ~$1.271B vs. cons $1.267B HIGH
KEY Report Net interest margin IN-LINE pred ~2.93% vs. cons 2.92% MEDIUM
KEY Guide Net interest income growth UNCHANGED guide ~9.5% vs. cons 9.5% (FY2026) HIGH
KEY Guide Fourth-quarter net interest margin BETTER guide ~3.05% vs. cons 3.04% (Q4 2026) MEDIUM
KEY Guide Adjusted noninterest expense growth UNCHANGED guide ~3.5% vs. cons 3.5% (FY2026) HIGH
KEY Guide Average commercial loan growth UNCHANGED guide ~7.0% vs. cons 7.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
KEY Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.4% MEDIUM
KEY Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.8% (FADE) Residual fades from ~+1.4% on day 1 to ~+0.8% cumulatively by day 5 because the modest EPS beat is largely driven by pre-announced Q2 NII momentum, while FY2026 NII guidance remains ~9.5% vs. cons 9.5%, limiting out-period estimate revisions. MEDIUM