KEY Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
KEY Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.48 vs. cons $0.47 MEDIUM
KEY Report Taxable-equivalent net interest income BEAT pred ~$1.27B vs. cons $1.25B HIGH
KEY Report Net interest margin BEAT pred ~2.94% vs. cons 2.90% MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY2026 net interest income growth BETTER guide ~9.5% vs. cons 9.2% (FY2026) MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY2026 average commercial-loan growth BETTER guide ~7.0% vs. cons 6.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY2026 noninterest-expense growth UNCHANGED guide ~3.5% vs. cons 3.5% (FY2026) HIGH
KEY Guide FY2026 common-share repurchases UNCHANGED guide ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.30B (FY2026) HIGH
KEY Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
KEY Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.6% (FADE) Day-1 residual ~+1.8% vs. day-5 residual ~+0.6%: an NII/NIM-led beat should initially help, but largely reiterated FY2026 NII, expense, and buyback math limits out-period EPS revisions and encourages partial profit-taking. MEDIUM