KEY Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-21

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
KEY Report Net Interest Income (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1,270M vs. cons $1,257M MEDIUM
KEY Report IB & Debt Placement Fees (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$185M vs. cons $179M MEDIUM
KEY Report Commercial Loan Growth QoQ (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$2.5B vs. cons implied ~$1.8B MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY 2026 NII Growth (FY 2026) BETTER guide ~10-11% vs. cons $5,100M (implied ~9%) MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY 2026 Commercial Loan Growth (FY 2026) BETTER guide ~8-10% vs. cons implied ~3% total avg MEDIUM
KEY Guide FY 2026 IB Fees (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide maintain 5-6% vs. cons $824M HIGH
KEY Guide FY 2026 Buybacks (FY 2026) BETTER guide raise to ~$1.5B floor vs. current $1.3B floor LOW
KEY Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
KEY Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — NII raise offsets IB fee Q3 softness; buyback support provides floor MEDIUM