KeyCorp (KEY) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Company | KeyCorp | Earnings Date | July 21, 2026 (Pre-Market) |
Ticker | KEY (NYSE) | Prepared | July 20, 2026 |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) | Sector | Regional Banking |
1. Earnings Preview
Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus is a manageable bar, management provided explicit intra-quarter guidance at the June 10 Morgan Stanley conference, and the regional bank peer group has broadly outperformed expectations in Q2 2026; the single biggest swing factor is whether investment banking fees land at or above the $175–$180M guided range and whether loan growth momentum can sustain the upward NII revision trajectory.
Heading into Q2 2026 earnings, KeyCorp's setup is constructive across virtually every dimension. At the June 10 Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference, CFO Clark Khayat provided unusually specific intra-quarter color: NII tracking ~3% quarter-over-quarter growth, loan growth of ~$1.5B quarter-to-date, investment banking fees guided to $175–$180M, and expenses expected to rise 3.5–4% sequentially before plateauing in H2 — all of which, if delivered, would be consistent with or above current consensus. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since Q1 earnings (operating EPS consensus slipped from ~$0.42 to ~$0.42, NIM consensus at 2.95% vs. the ~3.05% exit-rate target), suggesting the Street has not fully credited management's guidance trajectory. The stock has rallied ~7.6% since the Q1 print (vs. KRE +10.2%, SPY +5.7%), reflecting broad regional bank re-rating rather than KEY-specific multiple expansion, which means the stock has not fully priced in a beat. The key wildcard is investment banking fee delivery: middle-market M&A volumes remain subdued (deal volumes up 46% but transaction volumes down 26% per management), and any shortfall vs. the $175–$180M guide — which already implies a sequential decline from the record Q1 — could weigh on the print despite strength elsewhere. Peers PNC, CFG, and TFC all reported strong Q2 capital markets results, providing a positive read-through, but KEY's middle-market focus means it is more exposed to the M&A execution gap than its larger-cap peers.
2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar heading into the print — NIM estimates (2.95%) sit below management's guided exit trajectory (~3.05% by year-end), and NII consensus of ~$1.257B implies only ~3% sequential growth, consistent with the low end of management's own intra-quarter commentary. Investment banking fees are the bigger swing factor: consensus at ~$179M is right at the top of the $175–$180M guided range, leaving little room for upside surprise but also limited downside if execution is solid.
Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus Est. | YoY Change | Guidance | Cons. vs. Guide |
Diluted EPS — Operating ($) | $0.44 | $0.35 | $0.42 | +20.0% YoY | No explicit Q2 EPS guide; FY2026 ~$1.83 | ~−10% vs. FY run-rate |
Net Interest Income ($M) | $1,222M | $1,141M | $1,257M | +10.2% YoY | ~3% QoQ growth (MS Conf. Jun 10) | +2.9% vs. guide midpoint |
Net Interest Margin — FTE (%) | 2.87% | 2.71% | 2.95% | +24 bps YoY | Exit 2026 at ~3.05%; exceed 3% by YE | −10 bps below YE target |
Investment Banking & Debt Placement Fees ($M) | $197M | $178M | $179M | +0.6% YoY | $175–$180M (Q1 earnings + MS Conf.) | ~+0.6% vs. guide midpoint |
Total Revenue — Operating ($M) | $1,953M | $1,840M | $1,970M | +7.1% YoY | FY2026 ~$8.08B (implies ~$2.0B/Q H2) | Tracking to guide |
Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; KeyCorp Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 16, 2026); Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 10, 2026).
Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)
KPI 1: Net Interest Income (NII) | KPI 2: Diluted EPS — Operating
Quarter | KPI | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | NII | $1,222M | $1,220M | +0.2% | ✅ Beat |
Q1 2026 | Op. EPS | $0.44 | $0.41 | +7.3% | ✅ Beat |
Q4 2025 | NII | $1,215M | $1,203M | +1.0% | ✅ Beat |
Q4 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.41 | $0.39 | +5.1% | ✅ Beat |
Q3 2025 | NII | $1,184M | $1,175M | +0.8% | ✅ Beat |
Q3 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.41 | $0.38 | +7.9% | ✅ Beat |
Q2 2025 | NII | $1,141M | $1,135M | +0.5% | ✅ Beat |
Q2 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.35 | $0.34 | +2.9% | ✅ Beat |
Q1 2025 | NII | $1,096M | $1,090M | +0.6% | ✅ Beat |
Q1 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.34 | $0.32 | +6.3% | ✅ Beat |
Q4 2024 | NII | $1,051M | $1,035M | +1.5% | ✅ Beat |
Q4 2024 | Op. EPS | $0.38 | $0.32 | +18.8% | ✅ Beat |
Q3 2024 | NII | $952M | $938M | +1.5% | ✅ Beat |
Q3 2024 | Op. EPS | $0.30 | $0.28 | +7.1% | ✅ Beat |
Q2 2024 | NII | N/A — pre-VA window | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Q2 2024 | Op. EPS | N/A — pre-VA window | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Pattern: KEY has beaten NII consensus in each of the last 7 reported quarters, with EPS beats averaging ~7–8% — a consistent pattern of conservative guidance and disciplined execution that sets a favorable precedent heading into Q2 2026. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution
Key Takeaway: Guidance has been revised upward on NII and loan growth since Q1 earnings, with the June 10 Morgan Stanley conference providing specific Q2 intra-quarter updates that are incrementally positive; tone is confident and management has explicitly reaffirmed all other full-year commitments, with the only area of caution being near-term investment banking fee moderation from the record Q1 level.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings — Apr 16) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Full-Year NII Growth | 9–10% YoY (raised from 8–10%) | Reaffirmed at MS Conf. Jun 10 | ~$5.10B FY2026 (VA) | ↑ Raised at Q1 earnings; reaffirmed Jun 10; confident tone |
Q2 2026 NII (QoQ) | Not explicitly guided at Q1 earnings | ~3% QoQ growth (MS Conf. Jun 10) | $1,257M (+2.9% QoQ) | ↑ Intra-quarter update Jun 10; consensus tracking to guide |
NIM Exit Rate (YE 2026) | ~3.05% on stable earning assets | Reaffirmed at MS Conf. Jun 10 | 2.95% Q2 est.; 2.97% FY2026 (VA) | Street not fully crediting exit-rate target; ~10 bps gap |
NIM Exit Rate (YE 2027) | ~3.25%+ by end of Q4 2027 | Reaffirmed at MS Conf. Jun 10 | N/A (beyond VA window) | No change; CFO: “nothing I’m seeing would cause me to change that” |
Average Loan Growth (FY2026) | 2–4% (raised from 1–2%); commercial 6–8% | Comfortable with guide; may revisit upward in Q3 | Tracking to guide | ↑ Raised at Q1 earnings; $1.5B QTD loan growth noted Jun 10 |
IB & Debt Placement Fees (Q2) | $175–$180M (guided at Q1 earnings) | Reaffirmed at MS Conf. Jun 10 | $179M (VA) | Decline from record Q1 $197M; FY mid-single-digit growth on track |
IB Fees (FY2026) | Mid-single-digit growth (~$825M) | Reaffirmed; H1 tracking 6–7% YoY | $824M FY2026 (VA) | Consensus aligned with guide; M&A pipelines at record levels |
Noninterest Expense Growth (FY2026) | 3–4% YoY | Q2 pickup 3.5–4% QoQ; plateau in H2 | Tracking to guide | Banker hiring and merit pools driving Q2 step-up; H2 stable |
Share Buybacks (FY2026) | ≥$1.3B (raised from $1.2B); ≥$300M/Q | On track; $3B authorization announced May 14 | N/A | ↑ $3B buyback authorization (8-K May 14, 2026); $1.3B floor for year |
ROTCE Target (YE 2027) | >15% by YE 2027; 16–19% longer-term | Reaffirmed | N/A | Q1 ROTCE >13%; on track toward 15%+ milestone |
Sources: KeyCorp Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 16, 2026); Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 10, 2026); KeyCorp 8-K (May 14, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus Data.
4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker
Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly lower since Q1 earnings across NII and EPS, even as management raised guidance — a divergence that creates a cushion rather than a risk. The Street is not fully crediting the NIM expansion trajectory (consensus 2.95% vs. 3.05% exit-rate target), and NII estimates for Q2 and FY2026 sit at or below the low end of management's guided range, suggesting upside optionality if loan growth and deposit dynamics continue to track favorably.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~Apr 23, 2026 (Post-Q1 Baseline) | Current Consensus | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Cons. vs. Guide (%) |
Op. EPS — Q2 2026 | $0.424 | $0.419 | −1.2% | No explicit Q2 guide | No explicit Q2 guide | N/A | N/A |
Op. EPS — FY2026 | $1.824 | $1.831 | +0.4% | Implied by NII + fee + expense guides | Unchanged | Stable | Tracking to guide |
NII — Q2 2026 | $1,220M | $1,257M | +3.0% | ~3% QoQ growth (Jun 10 update) | ~3% QoQ growth | Stable | Tracking to guide |
NII — FY2026 | $5,079M | $5,100M | +0.4% | 9–10% YoY growth | Reaffirmed 9–10% | Stable | ~Low end of guide |
NIM (FTE) — Q2 2026 | 2.937% | 2.947% | +0.3% | Exceed 3% by YE; ~3.05% exit | ~3.05% exit rate (reaffirmed) | Stable | −10 bps below YE target |
IB Fees — Q2 2026 | $182M | $179M | −1.7% | $175–$180M | $175–$180M (reaffirmed) | Stable | ~+0.6% vs. midpoint |
IB Fees — FY2026 | $828M | $824M | −0.5% | Mid-single-digit growth (~$825M) | Reaffirmed; H1 tracking 6–7% YoY | Stable | ~−0.1% vs. guide midpoint |
The key divergence is in NIM: consensus at 2.95% for Q2 and 2.97% for FY2026 sits materially below management's guided exit rate of ~3.05% by year-end, implying the Street is not fully crediting the fixed-asset repricing tailwind. If Q2 NIM prints at or above 2.95% and management reaffirms the 3.05% exit target, this gap could close and drive estimate revisions higher. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; KeyCorp Q1 2026 Earnings Call; Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 10, 2026).
5. Stock Performance
Key Takeaway: KEY has underperformed KRE (+10.2%) but outperformed SPY (+5.7%) since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 16, 2026), with the stock up ~7.6% to $23.32 as of July 21, 2026 — the move is largely driven by the broad regional bank re-rating (KRE up 10.2%) rather than KEY-specific multiple expansion, suggesting the stock has not fully priced in the company's improving ROTCE trajectory and NIM expansion story.
KEY vs. KRE vs. SPY — Indexed Performance Since April 16, 2026 (Last Earnings Date)
Date | KEY (Indexed) | KRE (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) |
Apr 16, 2026 (Base) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Apr 30, 2026 | 102.0 | 101.5 | 102.4 |
May 14, 2026 ($3B buyback 8-K) | 97.3 | 98.4 | 106.6 |
Jun 10, 2026 (MS Conf.) | 101.4 | 104.1 | 103.4 |
Jun 30, 2026 (Q2 End) | 106.4 | 108.7 | 106.4 |
Jul 16, 2026 (Peer earnings) | 110.7 | 113.2 | 107.0 |
Jul 21, 2026 (Current) | 107.6 | 110.2 | 105.7 |
Sector ETF: SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) — appropriate for KEY's regional bank sub-sector. KEY's relative underperformance vs. KRE (+7.6% vs. +10.2%) reflects the market's continued skepticism about the pace of KEY's ROTCE improvement relative to peers that have already achieved mid-teens returns. The stock pulled back ~3% in mid-May alongside the broader regional bank sector before recovering, and has re-accelerated into peer earnings season (July 14–17) as USB, CFG, TFC, and RF all reported strong Q2 results. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).
6. Material News & Developments
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the $3 billion share buyback authorization (May 14, 2026), which signals management's conviction that the stock is undervalued and provides a multi-year capital return floor well above prior commitments; combined with Moody's potential upgrade review and the Clearwater acquisition, the strategic narrative has strengthened materially since the Q1 print.
- May 14, 2026 — $3 Billion Share Buyback Authorization (8-K): KeyCorp's Board authorized a new $3.0B share repurchase program, a significant increase from the prior $1.2–1.3B annual commitment. Management characterized the $1.3B FY2026 target as a floor, with Basel III Endgame optionality (estimated 100+ bps CET1 benefit) providing additional flexibility.
- April 16, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat + Guidance Raise: Reported operating EPS of $0.44 (vs. ~$0.41 consensus), NII of $1,222M, and NIM of 2.87%. Raised FY2026 NII guidance to 9–10% growth (from 8–10%) and loan growth guidance to 2–4% (from 1–2%). Eighth consecutive quarter of adjusted PPNR growth.
- April 16, 2026 — CFO Clark Khayat Assumes Expanded Role: Khayat added Head of Technology & Operations to his CFO responsibilities, signaling a strategic focus on AI-enabled productivity and cloud infrastructure as a competitive differentiator.
- Post-Q1 2026 — Moody’s Places KEY on Review for Potential Upgrade: Moody's initiated a review for a potential credit rating upgrade, reflecting improved capital levels (CET1 11.4%, marked CET1 10%) and strengthening profitability trajectory. A rating upgrade would reduce funding costs and expand the institutional investor base.
- Post-Q1 2026 — Clearwater Corporate Finance LLP Acquisition Announced: KeyCorp announced the acquisition of Clearwater, a UK-based middle-market M&A advisory firm, formalizing a 5–6 year referral relationship. The deal expands KEY's investment banking into Western Europe, enabling cross-border deal flow for US sponsors. Subject to UK FCA approval; expected to close H2 2026.
- June 10, 2026 — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (Intra-Quarter Update): CFO Khayat provided specific Q2 intra-quarter color: NII tracking ~3% QoQ growth, loan growth ~$1.5B QTD, IB fees guided to $175–$180M, expenses up 3.5–4% QoQ. Reaffirmed all full-year guidance. Confirmed $3B buyback on track for $1.3B in 2026.
- July 9, 2026 — Regional Bank Sector Positive Coverage (Barron’s): Barron's highlighted KEY alongside USB, PNC, FITB, and CFG as best-positioned regional banks, noting the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) up 12.7% YTD vs. 3.5% for the broad financial sector. BofA Securities cited KEY as among the banks best positioned to navigate the higher-for-longer rate environment.
- July 14–17, 2026 — Peer Q2 Earnings Season (Positive Read-Throughs): USB, CFG, TFC, RF, PNC, MTB, BAC, JPM, WFC, C, GS, and MS all reported Q2 results, with broad beats on NII, fees, and credit quality. Strong commercial loan growth, stable-to-improving credit, and robust capital markets activity across the peer group are positive read-throughs for KEY's Q2 print.
- July 2026 — Fed Policy Uncertainty (Rate Hike Risk): Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Kansas City Fed President Schmid both flagged inflation as "too hot," with markets pricing a ~60% probability of a September rate hike. KEY's balance sheet is positioned as neutral-to-slightly-asset-sensitive in the belly of the curve, which would be a modest tailwind if rates rise, but liability sensitivity on the front end could pressure deposit costs.
7. Peer Commentary Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Only)
Key Takeaway: Peer Q2 2026 earnings and conference commentary paint a broadly constructive backdrop for KEY — commercial loan demand is strong and broad-based, NIM is expanding across the peer group, credit quality is benign-to-improving, and capital markets fees are robust. The one nuance is that deposit costs ticked up modestly at several peers as loan growth accelerated, which is a watch item for KEY's NIM trajectory. All commentary below is from Q2 2026 reporting periods or explicit Q3 2026 outlooks based on Q2 conditions; no retrospective Q1-only commentary is included.
KeyCorp Management — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 10, 2026)
Relevance: Direct intra-quarter Q2 2026 update from CFO Clark Khayat.
- NII & NIM: "NII on the order of maybe 3% quarter-to-quarter" growth expected in Q2. NIM exit target of ~3.25%+ by end of Q4 2027 reaffirmed: "There wouldn't be anything I'm seeing at this point that would cause me to change that." Balance sheet is "slightly liability sensitive on the front end" and "asset sensitive in the belly of the curve" — a 40 bps 3–5 year rate increase "more than offsets" front-end sensitivity.
- Loans: "Good loan growth of about $1.5 billion quarter-to-date" as of June 10, driven by "a mix of new client activity and some additional uptick in utilization from the first quarter." Commercial "continues to be very strong," up "roughly $4 billion from year-end" combining Q1 and Q2 to date. Utilities and power "continues to be a source of strength." Utilization "has come down a little bit from its peak earlier in the second quarter."
- Investment Banking Fees: "Investment banking debt placement sort of $175 million to $180 million for the quarter." H1 tracking "6% to 7% in the first half from last year," putting the company "very comfortably on pace for our mid-single digits growth year-over-year." M&A pipelines "continue to be very strong and conversation is very, very consistent" but middle-market M&A pull-through remains slow; continuation funds increasingly substituting for outright sales.
- Credit: "Credit, still pretty benign." Charge-offs expected around "40-ish basis point number." After "4, 5 quarters consistently of every credit metric improving, you might see a little bit of plateauing or maybe even an uptick in one or two" — linked to oil/gas, agriculture, and transportation softness. "I don't think that drives through to loss in the near term."
- Expenses: "A little bit of a pickup in the second quarter, call it, 3.5% to 4%" QoQ, driven by banker hiring and merit pools. "I think we'll see those plateau in the second half" — keeping full-year guide of 3–4% intact.
- Deposits: "Second quarter averages to be pretty close to first quarter averages on deposits" with end-of-period "at or above where the first quarter was." Consumer front book rate held at 350 bps since March 2025. "Higher rates in certain markets. The Midwest would be one of them" but KEY has not moved its rate.
U.S. Bancorp (USB) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 16, 2026)
Relevance: USB is a direct regional bank peer; Q2 2026 results provide current-quarter read-through on NII, loan growth, fees, and credit.
- Overall Beat: USB reported Q2 EPS of $1.35, beating consensus of $1.28 by ~5.5%, driven by higher NII and noninterest income, improved cost controls (efficiency ratio improved >200 bps YoY, ~50 bps better than expected), and strong credit quality (provisions ~$60M below forecast). Company raised full-year guidance.
- NII & NIM: NII on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $4.4B, up 7.5% YoY, "above the range we had previously guided to driven by stronger loan dynamics." NIM improved 2 bps sequentially to 2.79%. Q3 NII guidance: up 4–6% YoY. NIM and NII trajectory expected to "continue growing throughout the year" driven by loan growth, investment portfolio repositioning, and fixed asset repricing.
- Loans: Average loans up 7.1% YoY and 3.0% QoQ to $405B. Growth "broad based in strategic categories such as CNI, credit card and commercial real estate." Commercial real estate saw "nice uptick" this quarter. "Pretty much every category in the commercial side is green from a growth standpoint." Full-year loan growth expected to exceed prior mid-single-digit guidance.
- Fees: Total fee revenue up 13.2% YoY. Capital markets revenue (ex-Btig) up ~31% YoY, reflecting strong client activity across FX, syndications, and corporate bond underwriting. Btig (acquired) generated ~$98M in its first month (June), exceeding expectations. Q3 total fee revenue growth guided to 12–14% YoY.
- Credit: NPA ratio improved 5 bps QoQ to 0.33%. Net charge-off ratio of 0.53%, down 3 bps sequentially. Allowance for credit losses stable at $8B (1.94% of loans). "Key credit quality metrics improved both sequentially and year over year, reflecting a stable economic backdrop."
- Deposits: Consumer deposits hit a third consecutive record quarter. Average total deposits up 2.4% YoY, flat linked quarter. Deposit rates "up a couple of basis points this quarter" — modest pressure from stronger loan growth. "Stronger the loan growth is, the potential rates might go up on that deposit side."
Citizens Financial Group (CFG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 16, 2026)
Relevance: CFG is a close regional bank peer with similar middle-market commercial and capital markets focus; Q2 2026 results are directly comparable.
- Overall Beat: CFG reported Q2 EPS of $1.30, beating consensus of $1.25. EPS growth of 15% QoQ and 41% YoY. ROTCE improved to 13.9% from 12.2% in Q1. "Record revenue, performance and expense discipline drove more than 600 basis points of positive operating leverage year over year." Company raised guidance.
- NII & NIM: NII up 4.4% QoQ and 14% YoY. NIM expanded 3 bps linked quarter for a "combined ten basis point lift through the first half of the year." Fixed-rate asset repricing added 1 bp; terminated swap benefits added 6 bps. Funding costs "ticked up slightly as loan demand strengthened." Q4 2026 NIM projected in the range of 3.22–3.27%.
- Loans: Average loans up 2% QoQ; period-end loans up 3%. Growth "picking up across all three businesses and exceeding expectations." CNI growth "fairly broad based" with increased demand from technology, healthcare, energy, and financial sectors. Private credit funds "actively utilizing facilities." Full-year loan growth expected to exceed prior guidance.
- Capital Markets: Capital markets hit a "second quarter record," with fees up 14% vs. strong Q1 and up 46% YoY. "Loan syndications and bond underwriting drove the outperformance." M&A fees "up significantly year over year" and pipeline "strong and continues to build." CFG maintained ranking as "second middle market sponsored bookrunner by number of deals and volume." Q3 non-interest income expected up ~1%, led by capital markets and wealth.
- Credit: Net charge-offs 37 bps, down from 39 bps in Q1. Non-accrual loans down 4% QoQ. ACL coverage ratio stable at 1.48%. "Credit continues to trend favorably." Charge-off level expected "stable to down slightly" in Q3.
- Deposits: Average deposits up 1% QoQ. Deposit costs up 4 bps in Q2 — "a bit more loan growth than people expected coming into the quarter, which might have caused deposit competition to increase a little bit." DDA and low-cost deposit mix broadly stable at 42% of total deposits.
Truist Financial (TFC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 17, 2026)
Relevance: TFC is a large regional bank peer with significant middle-market and investment banking overlap; Q2 2026 results provide read-through on NIM dynamics, deposit mix, and fee income.
- Overall Beat: TFC reported Q2 EPS of $1.23, beating consensus of $1.07–1.08. Noninterest income up 17% YoY; investment banking and trading revenue up 72%. Efficiency ratio ~80 bps better than expected. However, NII and NIM fell slightly short of expectations, and full-year revenue guidance was lowered to +3.5–4% from +4%, citing softer NII outlook.
- NII & NIM — Watch Item: NIM decreased 4 bps QoQ to 2.98%, driven by higher deposit costs, lower loan spreads, and a slightly larger balance sheet. Full-year NII growth outlook revised down to 1–1.5% from 2–3%, primarily due to lower loan spreads (strategic portfolio reallocation to higher-quality commercial credits) and less favorable deposit mix. NIM expected to "modestly improve throughout the course of the year."
- Deposit Mix Pressure: Average interest-bearing deposit costs increased 1 bp QoQ to 1.10%. DDA proportion expected to remix down from ~27% to ~25% by year-end, reflecting "elevated rate seeking behavior and migration into higher rate products." Middle-market deposits grew 12% YoY, with expansion markets (Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio) up 27%.
- Investment Banking: Investment banking and trading revenue up 72% YoY. Advisory revenue up 27% YTD. Full-year non-interest income growth outlook raised to ~10% from high single digits. "Fee income growth continues to outpace balance sheet growth."
- Credit: Net charge-offs declined 11 bps QoQ to 50 bps. Full-year NCO expectation of 55 bps. Allowance for loan losses modestly reduced as commercial and CRE problem credits resolved. "Strong and stable asset quality."
- KEY Read-Through: TFC's NIM compression from deposit mix shift and loan spread compression is a watch item for KEY, though KEY's balance sheet is more asset-sensitive in the belly of the curve and has a higher proportion of commercial operating deposits (~80%), which should provide more insulation. KEY's NIM trajectory (guided to 3.05% exit) is more mechanical (fixed-asset repricing) than TFC's, reducing the risk of a similar guidance cut.
PNC Financial Services (PNC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 15, 2026)
Relevance: PNC is a large regional bank peer with significant middle-market commercial banking and capital markets overlap; Q2 2026 results provide read-through on loan demand, NIM, and fee income.
- Overall Beat: PNC reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.85, beating consensus of $4.53. Revenue of $6.9B vs. consensus $6.5B, with fees driving most of the beat. Full-year sales growth guidance raised to 13% (from 11%).
- Loan Demand — Strongest in Memory: Total loans up 4% QoQ to $363B. CEO Demchak: "For the first time I can remember, we had strong growth across every category inside of the CSI franchise and utilization increases." Growth "virtually all in CNI, reflecting strong new production and higher utilization across almost every loan category." CRE pipelines "forming in a very constructive way across all categories." Q3 average loans guided up 1–2% QoQ.
- NII & NIM: NII up 4% QoQ to $4.1B. NIM up 1 bp to 2.96%. High-quality, lower-spread commercial loan growth constrained NIM: "If we didn't have that loan growth in the second quarter, our NIM would have easily popped above 3%." PNC prioritizes EPS over NIM: "We're given a choice between lower NIM, higher EPS or higher NIM and lower EPS. We'll take EPS every time." Q3 NII guided up 3–3.5%. NIM expected above 3% by year-end.
- Capital Markets — Record Quarter: Capital markets and advisory revenue up 25% QoQ, reflecting "record M&A advisory fees." Harris Williams (M&A advisory) had a "record quarter." Capital markets revenue up 80% YoY. Q3 capital markets revenue expected down ~20% QoQ due to pull-forward, but full-year still projected up 25–30% YoY.
- Deposits: Average deposits stable at $457B. Interest-bearing deposit costs down 5 bps to 1.91%. Non-interest bearing deposits grew 4% QoQ (23% of total), driven by commercial treasury management. Deposit costs expected to "drift back up to first quarter levels" in H2 but "not dramatic."
- Credit: NPLs down 10% QoQ to 0.55% of loans. Net charge-offs 25 bps. "Overall credit quality is very good on both the consumer side and the commercial side. We don't see any big pockets forming." Monitoring healthcare, distillery, and transportation. Q3 NCOs expected ~$225M (consistent with Q2).
- KEY Read-Through: PNC's record capital markets quarter and broad-based commercial loan growth are strongly positive for KEY's Q2 setup. The pull-forward dynamic in capital markets (PNC guiding Q3 down ~20%) is a watch item for KEY's H2 IB fee trajectory, though KEY's middle-market focus may be less exposed to the large-cap deal pull-forward effect.
Regions Financial (RF) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 17, 2026)
Relevance: RF is a direct regional bank peer with similar commercial banking and middle-market focus; Q2 2026 results provide read-through on loan growth, NIM, deposit pricing, and credit.
- Loan Growth: Average loans up ~2% QoQ; ending loans up 1%. Growth broad-based across C&I (power/utilities, manufacturing, government, retail trade) and investor real estate (multifamily). Loan pipelines up ~15% YoY. Line utilization up 100 bps QoQ — "reflects ongoing investment" and customers using lines more. About half of loan growth was investment-grade credits, compressing spreads modestly. Full-year average loan growth expected up low single digits vs. 2025.
- NII & NIM: NII up 2% QoQ. NIM of 3.66%, down 1 bp QoQ. Q3 NII expected up ~2%, progressing toward the middle of the 2.5–4% full-year outlook. NIM projected flat to slightly up in Q3, exiting 2026 at ~3.70%. Fixed-rate asset repricing ($3B expected to reprice at 75–100 bps pickup) and hedge rate increase (+7 bps) are key drivers. "Balance sheet repricing expected to support margin expansion over multiple years."
- Deposit Pricing: Interest-bearing deposit costs fell 3 bps to 1.69%. Deposit costs expected "largely stable" in H2 assuming constant fed funds rate. Non-interest bearing deposits grew >1% QoQ. CD maturities (~$5B in Q2) repriced at ~30 bps pickup. Upcoming CD maturities declining to ~$3B/quarter, expected to reprice at equivalent cost. "Deposit pricing will be flattish from here."
- Credit: Net charge-offs declined 12 bps QoQ to 42 bps. "Credit has largely normalized." Problem portfolios (business office -35% YoY, trucking -25%, communications -50%) continue to resolve. ACL ratio at 1.63%, expected stable for next several quarters. Full-year NCOs guided 40–50 bps. Modest softness in multifamily in Texas due to slower absorption rates.
- Capital Markets: Capital markets income (ex-CVA) increased modestly QoQ, with improvements in loan syndications, M&A advisory, and real estate capital markets, partially offset by lower commercial swap income. Higher long-term rates have impacted overall capital markets income. Q3 capital markets revenue expected toward the lower end of the $90–$105M quarterly range. Full-year non-interest income growth expected toward the lower end of 3–5% guidance.
- KEY Read-Through: RF's stable deposit pricing and improving credit are positive read-throughs for KEY. RF's NIM trajectory (exiting at ~3.70%) is already well above KEY's target (~3.05%), but the fixed-asset repricing dynamic is directly analogous — both banks benefit from the same mechanical tailwind as low-yielding assets roll off. RF's modestly softer capital markets outlook (lower end of range) is a mild caution for KEY's IB fee delivery.
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 28, 2026)
Relevance: HBAN is a direct Midwest regional bank peer; May 28 conference commentary provides Q2 2026 intra-quarter read-through on loan demand, deposit pricing, and credit.
- Loan Growth: Loan growth "sustainable" with pipelines "looking really good" and "activity strong." Eight new specialty verticals in the commercial bank contributing ~30% of loan growth as of Q1, with "terrific growth opportunities" ahead. Capital markets business "off to a very strong start in Texas and in other markets in the South" with "a half dozen energy deals done or lined up" from February close through early June.
- Deposit Pricing — Watch Item: "The yield curve has changed. The outlook has changed. The cost of deposits will change a bit as a consequence of that." Shift from expected rate decreases to "flat to flat or maybe even an uptick next year" means "deposit pricing a bit more challenging" in the near future. This is a direct read-through for KEY's deposit cost outlook if rates stay higher for longer.
- Credit: "By and large, our portfolio looks really good. Credit is holding in." Prime/super-prime consumer lender with 90%+ secured consumer lending. FHA delinquencies rising post-pandemic support suspension but "not a significant risk." Multifamily in Austin "has slowed meaningfully" — a market-specific watch item.
- KEY Read-Through: HBAN's commentary on deposit pricing pressure from a higher-for-longer rate environment is the most relevant read-through for KEY — both banks have significant Midwest deposit franchises and face similar competitive dynamics. HBAN's strong capital markets momentum in energy and Texas markets is a positive signal for the broader middle-market IB environment.
Peer Read-Through Summary Table
Theme | Peer Signal | Implication for KEY Q2 |
Commercial Loan Demand | USB +7.1% YoY; PNC +4% QoQ ("strongest in memory"); CFG +2% QoQ; RF +2% QoQ; HBAN pipelines strong | Positive — supports KEY's $1.5B QTD loan growth commentary and 2–4% FY guide |
NIM Trajectory | CFG +3 bps QoQ; RF -1 bp QoQ; USB +2 bps QoQ; PNC +1 bp QoQ; TFC -4 bps QoQ (outlier) | Broadly positive; TFC's compression is idiosyncratic (portfolio remix); KEY's mechanical repricing should support expansion |
Deposit Costs | USB +2 bps; CFG +4 bps; TFC +1 bp; RF -3 bps; PNC -5 bps; HBAN flagged higher-for-longer pressure | Mixed — modest deposit cost pressure from loan growth acceleration; watch item for KEY's NIM delivery |
Capital Markets / IB Fees | PNC capital markets +80% YoY (record); CFG capital markets +46% YoY (record Q2); USB capital markets +31% YoY; TFC IB +72% YoY | Strongly positive for KEY's $175–$180M IB fee guide; broad-based strength across syndications, M&A, and underwriting |
Credit Quality | USB NCO 0.53% (-3 bps QoQ); CFG NCO 37 bps (-2 bps QoQ); RF NCO 42 bps (-12 bps QoQ); PNC NCO 25 bps (stable) | Positive — benign credit environment supports KEY's ~40 bps NCO guidance and reserve stability |
Q3 Capital Markets Outlook | PNC guiding Q3 capital markets -20% QoQ (pull-forward); CFG fees up ~1% QoQ; RF toward lower end of range | Mild caution for KEY's H2 IB fee trajectory; middle-market focus may be less exposed to large-cap pull-forward |