KeyCorp (KEY) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

KeyCorp

Earnings Date

July 21, 2026 (Pre-Market)

Ticker

KEY (NYSE)

Prepared

July 20, 2026

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026)

Sector

Regional Banking

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus is a manageable bar, management provided explicit intra-quarter guidance at the June 10 Morgan Stanley conference, and the regional bank peer group has broadly outperformed expectations in Q2 2026; the single biggest swing factor is whether investment banking fees land at or above the $175–$180M guided range and whether loan growth momentum can sustain the upward NII revision trajectory.

Heading into Q2 2026 earnings, KeyCorp's setup is constructive across virtually every dimension. At the June 10 Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference, CFO Clark Khayat provided unusually specific intra-quarter color: NII tracking ~3% quarter-over-quarter growth, loan growth of ~$1.5B quarter-to-date, investment banking fees guided to $175–$180M, and expenses expected to rise 3.5–4% sequentially before plateauing in H2 — all of which, if delivered, would be consistent with or above current consensus. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since Q1 earnings (operating EPS consensus slipped from ~$0.42 to ~$0.42, NIM consensus at 2.95% vs. the ~3.05% exit-rate target), suggesting the Street has not fully credited management's guidance trajectory. The stock has rallied ~7.6% since the Q1 print (vs. KRE +10.2%, SPY +5.7%), reflecting broad regional bank re-rating rather than KEY-specific multiple expansion, which means the stock has not fully priced in a beat. The key wildcard is investment banking fee delivery: middle-market M&A volumes remain subdued (deal volumes up 46% but transaction volumes down 26% per management), and any shortfall vs. the $175–$180M guide — which already implies a sequential decline from the record Q1 — could weigh on the print despite strength elsewhere. Peers PNC, CFG, and TFC all reported strong Q2 capital markets results, providing a positive read-through, but KEY's middle-market focus means it is more exposed to the M&A execution gap than its larger-cap peers.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar heading into the print — NIM estimates (2.95%) sit below management's guided exit trajectory (~3.05% by year-end), and NII consensus of ~$1.257B implies only ~3% sequential growth, consistent with the low end of management's own intra-quarter commentary. Investment banking fees are the bigger swing factor: consensus at ~$179M is right at the top of the $175–$180M guided range, leaving little room for upside surprise but also limited downside if execution is solid.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual

Q2 2026 Consensus Est.

YoY Change

Guidance

Cons. vs. Guide

Diluted EPS — Operating ($)

$0.44

$0.35

$0.42

+20.0% YoY

No explicit Q2 EPS guide; FY2026 ~$1.83

~−10% vs. FY run-rate

Net Interest Income ($M)

$1,222M

$1,141M

$1,257M

+10.2% YoY

~3% QoQ growth (MS Conf. Jun 10)

+2.9% vs. guide midpoint

Net Interest Margin — FTE (%)

2.87%

2.71%

2.95%

+24 bps YoY

Exit 2026 at ~3.05%; exceed 3% by YE

−10 bps below YE target

Investment Banking & Debt Placement Fees ($M)

$197M

$178M

$179M

+0.6% YoY

$175–$180M (Q1 earnings + MS Conf.)

~+0.6% vs. guide midpoint

Total Revenue — Operating ($M)

$1,953M

$1,840M

$1,970M

+7.1% YoY

FY2026 ~$8.08B (implies ~$2.0B/Q H2)

Tracking to guide

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; KeyCorp Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 16, 2026); Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 10, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

KPI 1: Net Interest Income (NII) | KPI 2: Diluted EPS — Operating

Quarter

KPI

Reported

Consensus

Surprise %

Result

Q1 2026

NII

$1,222M

$1,220M

+0.2%

✅ Beat

Q1 2026

Op. EPS

$0.44

$0.41

+7.3%

✅ Beat

Q4 2025

NII

$1,215M

$1,203M

+1.0%

✅ Beat

Q4 2025

Op. EPS

$0.41

$0.39

+5.1%

✅ Beat

Q3 2025

NII

$1,184M

$1,175M

+0.8%

✅ Beat

Q3 2025

Op. EPS

$0.41

$0.38

+7.9%

✅ Beat

Q2 2025

NII

$1,141M

$1,135M

+0.5%

✅ Beat

Q2 2025

Op. EPS

$0.35

$0.34

+2.9%

✅ Beat

Q1 2025

NII

$1,096M

$1,090M

+0.6%

✅ Beat

Q1 2025

Op. EPS

$0.34

$0.32

+6.3%

✅ Beat

Q4 2024

NII

$1,051M

$1,035M

+1.5%

✅ Beat

Q4 2024

Op. EPS

$0.38

$0.32

+18.8%

✅ Beat

Q3 2024

NII

$952M

$938M

+1.5%

✅ Beat

Q3 2024

Op. EPS

$0.30

$0.28

+7.1%

✅ Beat

Q2 2024

NII

N/A — pre-VA window

N/A

N/A

N/A

Q2 2024

Op. EPS

N/A — pre-VA window

N/A

N/A

N/A

Pattern: KEY has beaten NII consensus in each of the last 7 reported quarters, with EPS beats averaging ~7–8% — a consistent pattern of conservative guidance and disciplined execution that sets a favorable precedent heading into Q2 2026. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has been revised upward on NII and loan growth since Q1 earnings, with the June 10 Morgan Stanley conference providing specific Q2 intra-quarter updates that are incrementally positive; tone is confident and management has explicitly reaffirmed all other full-year commitments, with the only area of caution being near-term investment banking fee moderation from the record Q1 level.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings — Apr 16)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

Full-Year NII Growth

9–10% YoY (raised from 8–10%)

Reaffirmed at MS Conf. Jun 10

~$5.10B FY2026 (VA)

↑ Raised at Q1 earnings; reaffirmed Jun 10; confident tone

Q2 2026 NII (QoQ)

Not explicitly guided at Q1 earnings

~3% QoQ growth (MS Conf. Jun 10)

$1,257M (+2.9% QoQ)

↑ Intra-quarter update Jun 10; consensus tracking to guide

NIM Exit Rate (YE 2026)

~3.05% on stable earning assets

Reaffirmed at MS Conf. Jun 10

2.95% Q2 est.; 2.97% FY2026 (VA)

Street not fully crediting exit-rate target; ~10 bps gap

NIM Exit Rate (YE 2027)

~3.25%+ by end of Q4 2027

Reaffirmed at MS Conf. Jun 10

N/A (beyond VA window)

No change; CFO: “nothing I’m seeing would cause me to change that”

Average Loan Growth (FY2026)

2–4% (raised from 1–2%); commercial 6–8%

Comfortable with guide; may revisit upward in Q3

Tracking to guide

↑ Raised at Q1 earnings; $1.5B QTD loan growth noted Jun 10

IB & Debt Placement Fees (Q2)

$175–$180M (guided at Q1 earnings)

Reaffirmed at MS Conf. Jun 10

$179M (VA)

Decline from record Q1 $197M; FY mid-single-digit growth on track

IB Fees (FY2026)

Mid-single-digit growth (~$825M)

Reaffirmed; H1 tracking 6–7% YoY

$824M FY2026 (VA)

Consensus aligned with guide; M&A pipelines at record levels

Noninterest Expense Growth (FY2026)

3–4% YoY

Q2 pickup 3.5–4% QoQ; plateau in H2

Tracking to guide

Banker hiring and merit pools driving Q2 step-up; H2 stable

Share Buybacks (FY2026)

≥$1.3B (raised from $1.2B); ≥$300M/Q

On track; $3B authorization announced May 14

N/A

↑ $3B buyback authorization (8-K May 14, 2026); $1.3B floor for year

ROTCE Target (YE 2027)

>15% by YE 2027; 16–19% longer-term

Reaffirmed

N/A

Q1 ROTCE >13%; on track toward 15%+ milestone

Sources: KeyCorp Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 16, 2026); Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 10, 2026); KeyCorp 8-K (May 14, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus Data.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly lower since Q1 earnings across NII and EPS, even as management raised guidance — a divergence that creates a cushion rather than a risk. The Street is not fully crediting the NIM expansion trajectory (consensus 2.95% vs. 3.05% exit-rate target), and NII estimates for Q2 and FY2026 sit at or below the low end of management's guided range, suggesting upside optionality if loan growth and deposit dynamics continue to track favorably.

KPI (Period)

Estimate ~Apr 23, 2026 (Post-Q1 Baseline)

Current Consensus

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Cons. vs. Guide (%)

Op. EPS — Q2 2026

$0.424

$0.419

−1.2%

No explicit Q2 guide

No explicit Q2 guide

N/A

N/A

Op. EPS — FY2026

$1.824

$1.831

+0.4%

Implied by NII + fee + expense guides

Unchanged

Stable

Tracking to guide

NII — Q2 2026

$1,220M

$1,257M

+3.0%

~3% QoQ growth (Jun 10 update)

~3% QoQ growth

Stable

Tracking to guide

NII — FY2026

$5,079M

$5,100M

+0.4%

9–10% YoY growth

Reaffirmed 9–10%

Stable

~Low end of guide

NIM (FTE) — Q2 2026

2.937%

2.947%

+0.3%

Exceed 3% by YE; ~3.05% exit

~3.05% exit rate (reaffirmed)

Stable

−10 bps below YE target

IB Fees — Q2 2026

$182M

$179M

−1.7%

$175–$180M

$175–$180M (reaffirmed)

Stable

~+0.6% vs. midpoint

IB Fees — FY2026

$828M

$824M

−0.5%

Mid-single-digit growth (~$825M)

Reaffirmed; H1 tracking 6–7% YoY

Stable

~−0.1% vs. guide midpoint

The key divergence is in NIM: consensus at 2.95% for Q2 and 2.97% for FY2026 sits materially below management's guided exit rate of ~3.05% by year-end, implying the Street is not fully crediting the fixed-asset repricing tailwind. If Q2 NIM prints at or above 2.95% and management reaffirms the 3.05% exit target, this gap could close and drive estimate revisions higher. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; KeyCorp Q1 2026 Earnings Call; Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 10, 2026).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: KEY has underperformed KRE (+10.2%) but outperformed SPY (+5.7%) since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 16, 2026), with the stock up ~7.6% to $23.32 as of July 21, 2026 — the move is largely driven by the broad regional bank re-rating (KRE up 10.2%) rather than KEY-specific multiple expansion, suggesting the stock has not fully priced in the company's improving ROTCE trajectory and NIM expansion story.

KEY vs. KRE vs. SPY — Indexed Performance Since April 16, 2026 (Last Earnings Date)

Date

KEY (Indexed)

KRE (Indexed)

SPY (Indexed)

Apr 16, 2026 (Base)

100.0

100.0

100.0

Apr 30, 2026

102.0

101.5

102.4

May 14, 2026 ($3B buyback 8-K)

97.3

98.4

106.6

Jun 10, 2026 (MS Conf.)

101.4

104.1

103.4

Jun 30, 2026 (Q2 End)

106.4

108.7

106.4

Jul 16, 2026 (Peer earnings)

110.7

113.2

107.0

Jul 21, 2026 (Current)

107.6

110.2

105.7

Sector ETF: SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) — appropriate for KEY's regional bank sub-sector. KEY's relative underperformance vs. KRE (+7.6% vs. +10.2%) reflects the market's continued skepticism about the pace of KEY's ROTCE improvement relative to peers that have already achieved mid-teens returns. The stock pulled back ~3% in mid-May alongside the broader regional bank sector before recovering, and has re-accelerated into peer earnings season (July 14–17) as USB, CFG, TFC, and RF all reported strong Q2 results. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the $3 billion share buyback authorization (May 14, 2026), which signals management's conviction that the stock is undervalued and provides a multi-year capital return floor well above prior commitments; combined with Moody's potential upgrade review and the Clearwater acquisition, the strategic narrative has strengthened materially since the Q1 print.

7. Peer Commentary Read-Throughs (Last 60 Days — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Only)

Key Takeaway: Peer Q2 2026 earnings and conference commentary paint a broadly constructive backdrop for KEY — commercial loan demand is strong and broad-based, NIM is expanding across the peer group, credit quality is benign-to-improving, and capital markets fees are robust. The one nuance is that deposit costs ticked up modestly at several peers as loan growth accelerated, which is a watch item for KEY's NIM trajectory. All commentary below is from Q2 2026 reporting periods or explicit Q3 2026 outlooks based on Q2 conditions; no retrospective Q1-only commentary is included.

KeyCorp Management — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference (June 10, 2026)

Relevance: Direct intra-quarter Q2 2026 update from CFO Clark Khayat.

U.S. Bancorp (USB) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 16, 2026)

Relevance: USB is a direct regional bank peer; Q2 2026 results provide current-quarter read-through on NII, loan growth, fees, and credit.

Citizens Financial Group (CFG) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 16, 2026)

Relevance: CFG is a close regional bank peer with similar middle-market commercial and capital markets focus; Q2 2026 results are directly comparable.

Truist Financial (TFC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 17, 2026)

Relevance: TFC is a large regional bank peer with significant middle-market and investment banking overlap; Q2 2026 results provide read-through on NIM dynamics, deposit mix, and fee income.

PNC Financial Services (PNC) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 15, 2026)

Relevance: PNC is a large regional bank peer with significant middle-market commercial banking and capital markets overlap; Q2 2026 results provide read-through on loan demand, NIM, and fee income.

Regions Financial (RF) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call (July 17, 2026)

Relevance: RF is a direct regional bank peer with similar commercial banking and middle-market focus; Q2 2026 results provide read-through on loan growth, NIM, deposit pricing, and credit.

Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference (May 28, 2026)

Relevance: HBAN is a direct Midwest regional bank peer; May 28 conference commentary provides Q2 2026 intra-quarter read-through on loan demand, deposit pricing, and credit.

Peer Read-Through Summary Table

Theme

Peer Signal

Implication for KEY Q2

Commercial Loan Demand

USB +7.1% YoY; PNC +4% QoQ ("strongest in memory"); CFG +2% QoQ; RF +2% QoQ; HBAN pipelines strong

Positive — supports KEY's $1.5B QTD loan growth commentary and 2–4% FY guide

NIM Trajectory

CFG +3 bps QoQ; RF -1 bp QoQ; USB +2 bps QoQ; PNC +1 bp QoQ; TFC -4 bps QoQ (outlier)

Broadly positive; TFC's compression is idiosyncratic (portfolio remix); KEY's mechanical repricing should support expansion

Deposit Costs

USB +2 bps; CFG +4 bps; TFC +1 bp; RF -3 bps; PNC -5 bps; HBAN flagged higher-for-longer pressure

Mixed — modest deposit cost pressure from loan growth acceleration; watch item for KEY's NIM delivery

Capital Markets / IB Fees

PNC capital markets +80% YoY (record); CFG capital markets +46% YoY (record Q2); USB capital markets +31% YoY; TFC IB +72% YoY

Strongly positive for KEY's $175–$180M IB fee guide; broad-based strength across syndications, M&A, and underwriting

Credit Quality

USB NCO 0.53% (-3 bps QoQ); CFG NCO 37 bps (-2 bps QoQ); RF NCO 42 bps (-12 bps QoQ); PNC NCO 25 bps (stable)

Positive — benign credit environment supports KEY's ~40 bps NCO guidance and reserve stability

Q3 Capital Markets Outlook

PNC guiding Q3 capital markets -20% QoQ (pull-forward); CFG fees up ~1% QoQ; RF toward lower end of range

Mild caution for KEY's H2 IB fee trajectory; middle-market focus may be less exposed to large-cap pull-forward