KMI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
KMI Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$0.31 vs. cons $0.31 MEDIUM
KMI Report Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$2.10B vs. cons ~$2.05B LOW
KMI Report Revenue (Q2'26) MISS pred ~$4.15B vs. cons $4.29B MEDIUM
KMI Guide FY26 Adjusted EBITDA (formal raise) BETTER guide ~$8.85B vs. cons/budget $8.6B (FY2026) MEDIUM
KMI Guide FY26 Adjusted EPS BETTER guide ~$1.40 vs. cons $1.37 (FY2026) LOW
KMI Guide Project backlog BETTER guide ~$10.5B vs. $10.1B prior (end-Q2'26) MEDIUM
KMI Guide FERC certificates SSE4 + MSX / Monument close UNKNOWN guide ~$3.5B SSE4 + ~$1.7B MSX vs. $10.1B backlog (July 2026) LOW
KMI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.7% MEDIUM
KMI Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) Seasonally quiet in-line quarter (EPS ~$0.31, big step down from Q1's weather/one-time-aided $0.48) against a ~22x valuation that already prices the gas-supercycle narrative. A modest EBITDA raise/Monument fold-in is largely expected, so upside is capped; if FERC approvals surprise positively there is offsetting torque. Out-period math is the drag — Street trims H2 estimates as Q1 one-timers roll off and recognizes the raise is mostly carryover, not organic acceleration — pulling residuals lower into day 5. LOW