I'll research KMI before writing the preview. Let me start by pulling recent filings, transcripts, and news.I'll read the most recent quarter's transcript and release, plus the prior quarter for context.Let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 comparison base and recent stock price data.Let me quickly check for consensus estimates and recent sector context.I have what I need. Here's the earnings preview.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Reports Wednesday, July 22, 2026 (after close) · Conference call 4:30 p.m. ET

The one-line setup

KMI enters this print riding a blowout Q1 and a full-blown "natural gas supercycle" narrative (LNG feedgas + data-center power demand). The stock is up ~16% YTD but has stalled near $32 since March. Q2 is a seasonally quieter quarter with an easy but modest YoY bar — the more important questions are around the FY26 guidance raise, two FERC certificate decisions due this month, and the Monument close/Western Gateway FID, not the headline EPS.

What the Street expects

Metric	Q2 2026 consensus	Q2 2025 actual	Implied YoY
Adjusted EPS	~$0.31	$0.28	~+11%
Revenue	~$4.29B	$4.04B	~+6%
Adjusted EBITDA	(~$2.05–2.1B implied)	$1,972M	mid-single digits

Consensus adjusted EPS of roughly $0.31 implies ~11% YoY growth; the revenue estimate of ~$4.29B implies ~6% growth. Note KMI has a history of beating on EPS but frequently missing the revenue line — revenue is a poor way to judge this fee-based story, so focus on segment EBDA and EBITDA.
KMI is typically first among midstream peers (WMB, OKE, ENB) to report, so this print sets the tone for the group.

Mind the sequential step-down. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS was $0.48 and adjusted EBITDA $2,539M (+18% YoY) — but that was inflated by Winter Storm Fern, extended Northeast cold, and a one-time terminal storage contract buyout. Management explicitly said most of the full-year outperformance was attributable to Q1, and the terminal buyout was "onetime in nature." So a large sequential decline into Q2 is normal seasonality, not deterioration — don't let a lower Q2 number vs. Q1 be misread as a miss.

The most important thing to watch: the guidance raise

The 2026 budget calls for: - Adjusted EBITDA $8.6B (+2% YoY) - Adjusted EPS $1.36 (+5%) - Net income $3.1B - Dividend $1.19/sh (+2%) - Year-end net-debt/EBITDA of 3.8x

As of the Q1 call, KMI said it was tracking more than 3% above the EBITDA budget (>$250M) — and that guidance excluded the Monument acquisition. The key question Wednesday: do they formally raise the full-year number, and by how much? Watch whether they (a) fold in Monument, (b) quantify the bonus-depreciation cash benefit, and (c) frame how much of the Q1 beat carries versus reverses. Given the conservative posture management struck in April, a formal raise here would be a positive catalyst; a reaffirm-only could disappoint a stock that has already re-rated to ~22x earnings.

Catalysts that could actually move the stock this quarter

Two FERC certificate decisions due in July 2026. FERC signaled it expects to issue certificates for both SSE4 (South System Expansion 4; ~$3.5B project, ~$1.8B KM share, +1.3 Bcf/d) and TGP's Mississippi Crossing / MSX (~$1.7B) in July. Approvals would de-risk two of KMI's largest growth projects and could be announced on or around this call. Watch for confirmation and any schedule changes.
Monument Pipeline close. The ~$505M Texas intrastate acquisition (225 miles serving Houston; ~9-yr weighted contract life; <8x medium-term multiple) received early HSR termination and was expected to close by end of Q2. Expect confirmation of close and the incremental EBITDA/backlog contribution.
Western Gateway FID. The refined-products JV with Phillips 66 (El Paso→Phoenix + California→Phoenix lines contributed to a JV) cleared its open season in April; management guided to a possible FID "in the next few months." Any FID, JV economics, or KMI cash/asset contribution detail would be new information.
Backlog trajectory. Backlog was $10.1B at end of Q1 (92% natural gas; ~60% tied to power generation/LDC demand; ~5.6x first-full-year multiple). Management said it expects a "meaningful amount" of shadow-backlog power projects to convert to sanctioned projects during 2026. Watch the net backlog add and any new data-center deals.

Segment-level things to watch

Natural Gas Pipelines (the engine): Q2 2025 adjusted segment EBDA was ~$1,347M; the segment drives the bulk of results. Q1 volumes were exceptional (transport +8%, gathering +15% on Haynesville/KinderHawk). Without winter-storm help, watch whether structural volume growth (LNG feedgas on TGP, power demand, Texas intrastate) holds up. Gulf Coast Express expansion was due in-service mid-2026.
Products Pipelines: Refined product volumes were down ~2% YoY in Q1; management insists high prices aren't yet hitting consumer demand. Watch for any sign of demand destruction, plus crude/condensate optics (Double H removed for NGL conversion — compare ex-Double H).
Terminals: Q2 2025 benefited from Jones Act tanker strength (fleet ~100% leased through 2026); liquids utilization ~94%, Houston Ship Channel/Carteret hubs ~99%. Remember Q1's one-time storage buyout won't repeat.
CO2 / Energy Transition: ~90% oil-hedged for 2026 (~76% for 2027 near $63–65/bbl), leaving ~10% unhedged as upside/downside torque to crude prices. RNG volumes have been improving sharply (+63% in Q1). This is the segment most exposed to commodity swings.

Balance sheet & capital allocation

Leverage ended Q1 at 3.6x — the lowest since before the 2014 consolidation — though management guided it back up to ~3.7x by year-end as capex ramps and Monument adds only partial-year EBITDA.
Moody's upgraded KMI to Baa1 in March, making it BBB+-equivalent at all three agencies.
KMI is self-funding its backlog with internally generated cash flow while growing the dividend ~2%. Q2 2025 free cash flow after capex was ~$1.0B; watch FCF given the rising capex cadence.
COO transition: James Holland retires effective Sept. 4, 2026; Ken Grubb (current Chief Project Officer) succeeds him — an execution-continuity item worth noting but not a surprise.

Valuation & positioning into the print

KMI trades around $32.4 (7/21 close), up ~16% YTD but roughly flat-to-down since the Q1 report (~$31.8 on 4/22) and off its March high near $34. Peers WMB (~$73) and OKE (~$92) have shown similar consolidation.
Sell-side is cautiously constructive: an average target around the mid-$35s (Truist ~$38, Mizuho ~$37), implying high-single-digit upside, with a rating mix skewed toward Buy/Hold.
At ~22x earnings, KMI is no longer cheap for a 2%-dividend-grower. That raises the bar: after a huge Q1, the debate is how much of the gas-demand optimism is already priced in. A guidance raise + FERC approvals + Monument/Western Gateway progress is likely needed to push the stock higher; a "solid but seasonal" quarter with only a reaffirm could see it drift.

Bottom line

Don't anchor on the Q2 headline EPS (~$0.31 consensus, modest YoY growth) or the sequential drop from Q1's weather-aided blowout — both are expected. The signal is in the guidance update, the July FERC certificates for SSE4 and MSX, the Monument close, and any Western Gateway FID, plus backlog conversion of power/data-center projects. Fundamentally the setup is strong (record utilization, self-funded growth, upgraded balance sheet); the risk is a richer valuation that demands the company keep raising the bar.

Note: Q2 consensus figures are drawn from public analyst compilations and should be treated as approximate; segment and guidance figures are from KMI's Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 releases and earnings calls.