| KMI |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.32 vs. cons $0.31 |
MEDIUM |
| KMI |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.15B vs. cons $2.10B |
MEDIUM |
| KMI |
Report |
Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$4.25B vs. cons $4.29B |
LOW |
| KMI |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA (vs. budget/consensus) |
BETTER |
guide ~$8.85B vs. cons $8.75B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| KMI |
Guide |
FY2026 Year-end Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA leverage |
BETTER |
guide ~3.6x-3.7x vs. cons/budget 3.8x (FY2026 year-end) |
MEDIUM |
| KMI |
Guide |
Project backlog (incl. Monument/shadow-backlog adds) |
BETTER |
guide ~$10.5B vs. prior $10.1B (Q2 2026 update) |
LOW |
| KMI |
Guide |
FERC decision on SSE4/MSX (~$5.2B combined) |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~decision by 7/31/26 vs. cons 7/31/26 (near-term catalyst) |
LOW |
| KMI |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+0.4% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| KMI |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.6% (FADE) |
Q1's outsized 41% EPS growth was explicitly flagged by management as weather/storm-driven (Storm Fern, Northeast cold) rather than a structural step-change; Q2 lacks that tailwind, so even a modest EPS/EBITDA beat vs. Q2 consensus is likely to be read against the tougher 2H comp. Analysts who extrapolated Q1's >3%-above-budget pace into FY estimates will likely trim out-quarter (Q3/Q4) EBITDA and EPS forecasts back toward the original budget cadence once Q2 confirms normalization, pulling the average estimate down over the following days even if the print itself beats. Leverage improvement and Monument/backlog additions provide a partial offset preventing a sharper fade, and unresolved FERC timing (SSE4/MSX due ~7/31) adds two-sided event risk that could interrupt any post-print drift. |
MEDIUM |