Timing correction: Kinder Morgan reports today, Wednesday, July 22, 2026, after the market closes—not tomorrow. The earnings call begins at 4:30 p.m. ET. (ir.kindermorgan.com)
KMI enters Q2 with unusually strong momentum for a typically steady midstream company. First-quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 18%, adjusted EPS rose 41%, leverage fell to 3.6x, and management said full-year results should exceed budget by more than 3%—before including the Monument Pipeline acquisition.
That creates a higher bar for tonight’s report. The central question is not whether KMI beats quarterly EPS by a few cents. It is whether management:
The shares closed July 21 at $32.39, up approximately 18% in 2026, so the market is already pricing in a constructive natural-gas growth story.
Published estimates vary slightly by provider:
| Metric | Q2 2026 expectation | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.31–$0.32 | $0.28 |
| Revenue | $4.24–$4.29 billion | $4.04 billion |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Approximately $2.05 billion based on one recent sell-side estimate | — |
Wall Street’s segment expectations include approximately $1.43 billion of Natural Gas Pipelines EBDA, $305 million from Products Pipelines, $294 million from Terminals, and $189 million from CO₂. That would make natural-gas segment earnings roughly flat year over year despite growth elsewhere. (zacks.com)
Investors should expect a substantial sequential decline from Q1’s $0.48 adjusted EPS and $2.54 billion adjusted EBITDA. Q1 benefited from severe winter weather, elevated Northeast demand and a terminal-contract termination payment, whereas Q2 is seasonally less favorable. A sequential decline by itself would not indicate that the underlying thesis has weakened. (ir.kindermorgan.com)
KMI’s original 2026 budget called for:
Following Q1, management said adjusted EBITDA and the other principal earnings metrics were trending more than 3% above budget. That implies adjusted EBITDA above roughly $8.86 billion, even before Monument’s contribution. Management also expected year-end leverage of approximately 3.7x, better than the budgeted 3.8x. (s24.q4cdn.com)
A favorable report would include:
Merely repeating “more than 3% above budget” may be seen as conservative or disappointing, especially after management said in April that it expected additional outperformance during the rest of the year.
Natural Gas Pipelines generated most of the Q1 upside. Transport volumes increased 8%, gathering volumes rose 15%, and utilization across KMI’s five largest gas pipelines had reached approximately 90% in 2025, versus 74% in 2016.
The Q2 comparison is more demanding because the first quarter included Storm Fern and extended Northeast cold. Investors should therefore focus on underlying indicators:
KMI has said it is pursuing more than 10 Bcf/d of power-sector opportunities and over 3 Bcf/d of LNG opportunities. Its April presentation also identified more than $10 billion of potential projects beyond the approved backlog, approximately 90% driven by power and LNG demand. (s24.q4cdn.com)
A particularly constructive signal would be another meaningful increase in the backlog from projects serving data centers, utilities or LNG export facilities.
KMI ended Q1 with a $10.1 billion project backlog, about 92% related to natural gas. Excluding gathering, processing and enhanced-oil-recovery projects, the backlog carried an attractive estimated EBITDA build multiple of approximately 5.6x and a capital-weighted average in-service date of Q1 2028. (s24.q4cdn.com)
The $1.8 billion, 2 Bcf/d Trident project is scheduled to begin initial service in Q1 2027, with its second phase expected in Q4 2028. Because customer contracts start at different times, KMI expects only about 30% of full run-rate project EBITDA in 2027 and 80% in 2028. Investors should watch for any movement in construction cost, timing or the 2027 earnings ramp. (s24.q4cdn.com)
These two projects represent approximately $3.5 billion of KMI-share capital and are among the largest components of the backlog. FERC issued its final environmental impact statement on June 26, but, as of July 22, the projects had not yet received final approval. FERC’s current schedule calls for a final order no later than July 31, 2026. (ferc.gov)
Management’s confidence in permitting—and whether any preparatory work or costs have changed—will matter.
KMI previously expected the following projects to enter service during or around 2026:
Updates on completed projects will help determine whether KMI can convert its large capital program into cash flow without delays.
KMI closed the approximately $505 million Monument Pipeline acquisition on May 1, so Q2 should include roughly two months of contribution. The system consists of approximately 225 miles of Houston-area pipelines serving utilities, LNG shippers and industrial customers. Its contracts have an approximately nine-year revenue-weighted remaining term. (ir.kindermorgan.com)
Management previously described the acquisition multiple as high-single-digit initially and below 8x over the medium term, helped by contracted expansions and integration with KMI’s storage assets.
Investors should listen for:
A strong update would show that Monument is immediately accretive without pulling leverage materially above the revised 3.7x year-end expectation.
KMI and Phillips 66 completed a successful open season for Western Gateway in April. The proposed system would combine a new pipeline from Borger, Texas, to Phoenix with a reversal of KMI’s existing Colton-to-Phoenix line, allowing Midwest and Gulf Coast refined products to reach Arizona and California. The targeted completion date is mid-2029. (ir.kindermorgan.com)
Western Gateway was not included in KMI’s $10.1 billion backlog as of Q1 because definitive transportation agreements, joint-venture terms and board approvals were still outstanding.
Tonight’s most potentially market-moving project announcement would be:
Given the quality of KMI’s natural-gas opportunities—many carrying build multiples below 6x—the company will need to demonstrate that Western Gateway offers competitive risk-adjusted returns.
Consensus calls for EBDA of approximately $305 million, up from $289 million a year ago. Potential positives include inflation-linked tariff increases, higher transmix economics and the SFPP Tucson expansion. Risks include refined-product demand destruction from elevated fuel prices and weaker crude-pipeline volumes following the Double H conversion.
The difficult issue is comparability. Q1 included recognition of payments associated with early termination of Houston Ship Channel storage agreements. Management subsequently backfilled the released capacity under long-term arrangements, but the timing of stepped-up rates means the replacement earnings may take time to appear.
Consensus expects approximately $294 million of Q2 EBDA, slightly below the prior-year period. Investors should focus on tank utilization, Houston Ship Channel activity and Jones Act charter rates rather than a modest year-over-year decline.
This could provide upside. Only about 10% of 2026 oil production was unhedged entering Q2, limiting direct commodity exposure, but recent higher oil prices should still help at the margin. Consensus expects approximately $189 million of segment EBDA, versus $150 million a year ago. KMI was also benefiting from improved SACROC production and better renewable-natural-gas operating performance. (zacks.com)
KMI finished Q1 at 3.6x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, its lowest leverage in many years, and expected approximately 3.7x at year-end after higher capital spending and the Monument acquisition. The balance sheet is rated the equivalent of BBB+ by all three major agencies.
At $32.39, the planned $1.19 annual dividend represents a yield of approximately 3.7%. Using the Q1 net-debt balance and the implied floor of more than $8.86 billion in 2026 adjusted EBITDA, KMI trades at roughly 11.7x enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA on a simplified basis.
That is not an excessive valuation for a company with a highly contracted business and a sizable natural-gas backlog, but it leaves less room for a report that offers only an in-line quarter and unchanged commentary.
This would support the long-term thesis but might not be enough to drive a major post-earnings move after the stock’s 2026 appreciation.
KMI’s Q2 numbers matter, but guidance and backlog conversion matter more. The ideal report would demonstrate that Q1’s outperformance was not simply a combination of winter weather and one-time terminal payments—and that KMI can translate strong natural-gas demand into contracted projects at attractive returns.
The three most important items are:
With the stock already up about 18% this year, an ordinary in-line quarter may not be enough. Investors are likely to reward a credible guidance raise and new project commitments more than a small EPS beat.