Ticker: KMI Earnings Date: July 22, 2026 (after market close) Prepared: July 21, 2026 Reporting Period: Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)
Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 is a modest beat — consensus Adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.08B sits below the pace implied by KMI's raised full-year guidance, and the biggest swing factor is whether natural gas transport volumes hold up without the Q1 weather tailwind.
Heading into Q2 2026 earnings, the bar looks achievable but not easy: consensus Adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.08B represents a step-down from Q1's exceptional $2.54B (which benefited from Winter Storm Fern and a one-time terminal contract buyout), yet management's raised full-year guidance — now calling for EBITDA to exceed budget by more than 3%, or roughly $250M+ above the original plan — implies the remaining three quarters must collectively deliver above-budget results. Estimate revisions have been modestly positive since the Q1 print (Q2 consensus moved from ~$2.06B to ~$2.08B), suggesting the Street is gradually pricing in the structural demand tailwinds rather than chasing the weather-driven Q1 spike. The stock has traded roughly flat since the April 22 earnings date (KMI ~$32.38 vs. $31.81 at close on earnings day), underperforming AMLP and the S&P 500 on a relative basis, which means the multiple has not materially expanded and the setup is not stretched. The key wildcard is Permian gas egress: KMI's 570 MMcf/d GCX expansion was coming online during Q2, and whether that capacity filled quickly — as management expected — will be a key volume driver and a signal for the $10.1B backlog thesis. LNG feed gas volumes on Tennessee Gas Pipeline remain structurally elevated, and the Haynesville gathering system (KinderHawk) was running at or near capacity entering the quarter, providing a solid baseline even without weather upside.
Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a manageable bar on Adjusted EBITDA (~$2.08B, up ~5% YoY) with the Street expecting a clean quarter absent weather noise; natural gas transport volumes are the bigger swing factor given the GCX ramp and LNG feed gas trajectory.
KPI | Last Quarter Actual (Q1 2026) | Prior Year Period (Q2 2025 Actual) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | FY2026 Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA | $2,539M | $1,972M | $2,076M | +5.3% | >3% above budget (~$8.95B FY) | ~In-line with implied run-rate |
EPS — Diluted Operating | $0.48 | $0.28 | $0.31 | +10.7% | ~$1.48 FY2026 | ~In-line |
Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) | $1,857M | $1,164M | $1,337M | +14.9% | ~$6.01B FY2026 | ~In-line |
Total Revenues | $4,828M | $4,042M | $4,231M | +4.7% | N/A (no explicit revenue guidance) | N/A |
Nat. Gas Transport Vol. (Bbtu/d) | ~49,475 Bbtu/d | ~44,585 Bbtu/d | ~45,997 Bbtu/d | +3.2% | ~47,802 Bbtu/d FY avg. | Slightly below FY avg. |
Nat. Gas Gathering Vol. (Bbtu/d) | ~4,319 Bbtu/d | ~3,931 Bbtu/d | ~4,374 Bbtu/d | +11.3% | ~4,444 Bbtu/d FY avg. | ~In-line with FY avg. |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 21, 2026. FY2026 guidance reflects management's updated outlook from Q1 2026 earnings call (April 22, 2026) — EBITDA to exceed budget by >3%, implying ~$8.95B FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA. Volume figures in Bbtu/d are derived from VA quarterly actuals and consensus.
Quarter | KPI | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | Adj. EBITDA | $2,539M | $2,300M | +10.4% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | Op. EPS | $0.48 | $0.39 | +23.1% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | Adj. EBITDA | $2,271M | $2,210M | +2.8% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.39 | $0.37 | +5.4% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | Adj. EBITDA | $1,991M | $1,993M | -0.1% | In-Line / Slight Miss |
Q3 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.29 | $0.28 | +3.6% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | Adj. EBITDA | $1,972M | $1,969M | +0.2% | In-Line / Slight Beat |
Q2 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.28 | $0.28 | 0.0% | In-Line |
Q1 2025 | Adj. EBITDA | $2,157M | $2,147M | +0.5% | In-Line / Slight Beat |
Q1 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.34 | $0.34 | 0.0% | In-Line |
Q4 2024 | Adj. EBITDA | $2,063M | $2,089M | -1.2% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | Op. EPS | $0.32 | $0.33 | -3.0% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | Adj. EBITDA | $1,880M | $1,927M | -2.4% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | Op. EPS | $0.25 | $0.27 | -7.4% | Miss |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Pattern: KMI has beaten or matched on Adjusted EBITDA in 5 of the last 8 quarters, with the two most recent quarters delivering the largest positive surprises driven by weather and structural demand; the three misses (Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q3 2025) were modest and largely volume-driven.
Key Takeaway: Management raised full-year EBITDA guidance at Q1 earnings and has since reiterated a constructive tone at two investor conferences (Barclays May 5, Bernstein May 27); no formal guidance revision has been issued post-Q1, but tone has shifted more bullish on LNG and power demand.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Apr 22) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY2026 Adj. EBITDA | Exceed budget by >3% (~$8.95B+), excl. Monument | — | $8.95B | Raised at Q1 earnings; Monument contributions additive; no further formal revision post-Q1 |
FY2026 Net Debt / EBITDA | ~3.7x year-end (vs. prior budget of 3.8x) | — | ~3.7x | Reiterated at Bernstein (May 27); reflects Monument acquisition impact |
Annual Dividend | $1.19/share annualized (+2% vs. 2025) | — | $1.19/share | Unchanged; Q1 declared $0.2975/share; well-covered at ~2.5x |
Growth CapEx | ~$3B/year financeable from internal cash flow | — | ~$3B | Reiterated at Bernstein (May 27); balance sheet capacity allows upside spending |
Project Backlog | $10.1B sanctioned; avg. in-service Q1 2028 | — | N/A | Reiterated at both conferences; shadow backlog ~$10B additional; Western Gateway FID expected “in next few months” per Barclays conf. |
Haynesville Gathering Expansion | Incremental 1 Bcf/d processing capacity to be layered in through balance of 2026 | — | N/A | KinderHawk at capacity in Q1; expansion on track per Q1 call |
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q2 2026 and FY2026 have drifted modestly higher since the Q1 print, tracking management's raised guidance; the gap between consensus and guidance is narrow, suggesting limited cushion for a large upside surprise but also limited downside risk absent a volume miss.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (Apr 29, 2026) | Current Consensus (Jul 21, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Adj. EBITDA — Q2 2026 | $2,061M | $2,076M | +0.7% | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A | N/A |
Adj. EBITDA — FY2026 | $8,937M | $8,952M | +0.2% | >3% above budget (~$8.95B+) | Unchanged | — | ~In-line |
Op. EPS — Q2 2026 | $0.303 | $0.310 | +2.3% | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A | N/A |
Op. EPS — FY2026 | $1.466M | $1.479 | +0.9% | ~$1.47 implied | Unchanged | — | ~In-line |
DCF — Q2 2026 | $1,307M | $1,337M | +2.3% | No explicit Q2 guidance | No explicit Q2 guidance | N/A | N/A |
DCF — FY2026 | $5,858M | $6,012M | +2.6% | ~$6.0B implied | Unchanged | — | ~In-line |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Estimates have drifted 0.2%–2.6% higher across all KPIs since the Q1 print, consistent with management's raised guidance and constructive conference commentary. The narrow gap between consensus and guidance implies the Street has largely priced in the raised bar, leaving the Q2 print as a volume execution story rather than an estimate revision catalyst.
Key Takeaway: KMI has underperformed both AMLP and the S&P 500 since the Q1 earnings date, with the stock essentially flat (+1.8%) while AMLP gained ~4.8% and the S&P 500 gained ~5.2%; the relative underperformance reflects multiple compression rather than earnings deterioration, as the Q1 beat was already priced in and the stock had run ~20% in the prior six months.
Since the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 22, 2026), KMI closed at $31.81 and as of July 21, 2026 trades at $32.38, a gain of +1.8%. Over the same period, AMLP (Alerian MLP ETF, the relevant midstream sector benchmark) rose from $51.91 to $54.40 (+4.8%), and the S&P 500 (SPY) rose from $711.21 to $748.28 (+5.2%). KMI's relative underperformance is notable given the strong Q1 beat — the stock initially rallied to $34.31 by May 19 (+7.9% from earnings) before pulling back through late May and June as the broader market digested the one-time weather tailwind. The stock found support in the $31–32 range through June and has stabilized heading into Q2 earnings. The 6-month and 12-month performance (+15.8% and +16.2% respectively) remains strong, driven roughly equally by EBITDA growth and modest multiple expansion (EV/EBITDA expanded from ~11.0x to ~11.7x NTM over 6 months). The current NTM EV/EBITDA of ~11.7x is at the high end of KMI's historical range, suggesting limited multiple expansion from here and placing greater emphasis on earnings delivery.
Sector ETF used: AMLP (Alerian MLP ETF) — appropriate for KMI's midstream natural gas pipeline sub-sector. Key events marked: May 5 (Barclays Conference), May 27 (Bernstein Conference), July 13 (WMB Power Innovation JV announcement — peer read-through).
Date | KMI (Indexed) | AMLP (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) |
Apr 22, 2026 (Base) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Apr 30, 2026 | 103.3 | 104.3 | 101.0 |
May 19, 2026 (KMI peak) | 107.9 | 105.7 | 103.2 |
May 29, 2026 | 97.7 | 99.4 | 106.4 |
Jun 30, 2026 | 100.5 | 99.9 | 105.0 |
Jul 21, 2026 | 101.8 | 104.8 | 105.2 |
Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance). Indexed to 100 at April 22, 2026 close. KMI peaked at ~107.9 on May 19 before pulling back as weather-driven Q1 upside was discounted. AMLP and SPY have outperformed KMI since the Q1 print, consistent with the stock having already priced in much of the structural demand narrative.
Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q1 development is the Monument Pipeline acquisition closing ahead of schedule (late April/early May), which adds immediate EBITDA contribution to Q2; the broader LNG demand narrative has strengthened further with Middle East supply disruptions providing a structural tailwind.
Relevance: WMB is the closest large-cap midstream peer to KMI with significant natural gas pipeline and storage overlap. The July 13 announcement and investor presentation are post-Q1 developments occurring within Q2 2026 and directly address current-quarter strategic and financial conditions.
Theme | WMB Commentary (July 13, 2026) | KMI Read-Through | Direction |
Power / AI Infrastructure Demand | WMB secured $5.34B JV with Blackstone/Apollo/KKR for 5 behind-the-meter Power Innovation projects (2.6+ GW announced, 6+ GW backlog). Blackstone: “Williams is a leader in meeting the country’s rapidly growing power demands, including providing critical hard assets to serve the AI infrastructure buildout.” | Strongly positive for KMI’s backlog thesis. 60% of KMI’s $10.1B sanctioned backlog is power-demand driven. WMB’s ability to attract $5.34B of institutional capital at ~6.35% cost of equity validates the investment case for natural gas power infrastructure and signals robust demand for the asset class. | ↑ Positive |
2026 Financial Guidance Reaffirmation | WMB “continues to expect 2026 Adjusted EBITDA in the upper half of its $8.05B–$8.35B range.” Growth CapEx $7.0–7.6B and maintenance CapEx $850M–$950M unchanged. | Positive sector read-through. WMB reaffirming guidance mid-Q2 (July 13) suggests no material headwinds in the natural gas midstream operating environment through Q2. Stable sector conditions support KMI’s own guidance reaffirmation expectations. | ↑ Positive |
Balance Sheet & Capital Structure | WMB’s updated 2026 leverage midpoint is ~3.6x (reduced from prior guidance via JV equity treatment). Long-term leverage target 3.5–4.0x. JV structure “preserves balance sheet capacity for additional high-return opportunities.” | Neutral to positive for KMI. KMI is also targeting ~3.7x year-end leverage. WMB’s innovative JV financing structure highlights the availability of institutional capital for energy infrastructure, which could inform KMI’s own capital allocation optionality for projects beyond the current $3B/year internal capacity. | ↑ Positive |
Competitive Landscape | WMB is pursuing “behind-the-meter” power generation (owning the power plant), a strategy KMI has explicitly ruled out. WMB’s 6+ GW power backlog competes for the same data center customers as KMI’s pipeline-only approach. | Mild negative / competitive risk. WMB’s integrated power strategy could capture data center customers who prefer a single-vendor solution, potentially reducing the addressable market for KMI’s pipeline-only power demand projects. However, KMI management has explicitly stated it will not enter the power generation business, maintaining capital discipline. | ↓ Mild Negative |
Counterpoint: WMB’s behind-the-meter strategy represents a divergence from KMI’s pipeline-only model. While WMB’s JV validates the power demand thesis, it also signals that some peers are moving up the value chain in ways KMI has chosen not to. The key question for KMI management on the Q2 call will be whether the pipeline-only approach is sufficient to capture the full opportunity set, or whether KMI risks being disintermediated by integrated players like WMB for certain data center customers.
Peers Excluded from This Section: Energy Transfer (ET) — only post-Q1 filings found were debt issuance 8-Ks (July 8 and July 20, 2026) with no current-quarter operational commentary. Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) — only qualifying filing was a CEO succession announcement (July 1, 2026) with no Q2 operational read-through. MPLX — only filing was a Q2 earnings date announcement (June 16, 2026). Targa Resources (TRGP) — only filings were a board appointment and dividend announcement with no operational commentary. All prior-quarter retrospective commentary from any peer is excluded per scope criteria.
Key Takeaway: All insider activity since Q1 earnings consists of routine 10b5-1 planned sales by two segment presidents — no open-market buys, no discretionary sales, and no unusual clustering or size. The pattern is unremarkable and carries no negative signal.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Approx. Value | Transaction Date | Note |
Garthwaite, Michael P. | VP (Pres., Products Pipelines) | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 1,550 | ~$50,400 | Jul 16, 2026 | Pre-planned; 4% of holdings; routine monthly cadence |
Schlosser, John W. | V.P. (President, Terminals) | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 6,166 | ~$200,000 | Jul 6, 2026 | Pre-planned; routine monthly cadence; retains 164,208 shares |
Garthwaite, Michael P. | VP (Pres., Products Pipelines) | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 1,550 | ~$50,000 | Jun 16, 2026 | Pre-planned; identical size to prior month; routine |
Schlosser, John W. | V.P. (President, Terminals) | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 6,166 | ~$196,000 | Jun 5, 2026 | Pre-planned; identical size to prior month; routine |
Garthwaite, Michael P. | VP (Pres., Products Pipelines) | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 1,550 | ~$50,000 | May 18, 2026 | Pre-planned; identical size; routine monthly cadence |
Schlosser, John W. | V.P. (President, Terminals) | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | 6,166 | ~$191,000 | May 5, 2026 | Pre-planned; identical size; routine monthly cadence |
Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. All six transactions are pre-planned 10b5-1 sales (transaction code S, overall_10b5 = True). Both insiders are selling identical share quantities each month, consistent with a systematic diversification plan rather than a discretionary view on the stock. No open-market purchases or discretionary sales were filed in the review period. The absence of any open-market buying by senior management (CEO, CFO, Executive Chairman) is neutral — not a negative signal given the 10b5-1 plan context and the stock’s strong prior-year performance.