{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (Q2'26, non-GAAP/ex-charge)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.95 vs. cons $7.15",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$19.0B vs. cons $19.28B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Segment operating margin (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~10.2% vs. cons ~10.7%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$29.35-30.25 (mid ~$29.80) vs. cons ~$29.75 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Free Cash Flow guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$6.5-6.8B (top-end lean) vs. cons ~$6.7B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Sales guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$77.5-80.0B (mid ~$78.75B) vs. cons ~$78.7B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Backlog / book-to-bill (THAAD ~$35B, PAC-3)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide backlog ~$200B+ vs. prior $186B / cons ~$190B (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Classified program charges (Aero/MFC) & new-CEO big-bath risk",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide charge ~$0 (cash burn ~$500-700M/yr) vs. cons $0 charge (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Setup is a high-bar 'clean comp' with a fresh CEO (St. John) print \u2014 elevated big-bath/charge risk plus a demanding +6% revenue reaccel off a flat, sub-11% margin Q1. A soft Q2 on margin/FCF with only a reaffirmed (not raised) FY guide forces sell-side to trim out-period H2 estimates even if the headline is 'clean,' because the ~+25% segment-profit bridge becomes harder. Low-beta name (~0.5) so residual is idiosyncratic; skeptical, drifting-lower positioning means a miss/charge pulls estimates and the stock lower over the week rather than reversing. Offsetting bull case (record THAAD/PAC-3 bookings, positive FCF vs easy year-ago -$150M comp) caps downside but is unlikely to spark durable follow-through given execution doubts.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}