| LUV |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.62 vs. cons ~$0.50 |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Report |
RASM y/y (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~+18.5% vs. cons ~+17.5% |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Report |
CASM-X y/y (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~+3.2% vs. cons ~+3.75% |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted EPS (reinstatement) |
UNKNOWN |
guide reinstate ~$3.50-4.00 vs. cons ~$3.80 (FY26) |
LOW |
| LUV |
Guide |
Q3'26 Adjusted EPS guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$0.55 vs. cons ~$0.48 (Q3'26) |
LOW |
| LUV |
Guide |
Q3'26 RASM y/y (full run-rate) |
BETTER |
guide ~+8% vs. cons ~+6% (Q3'26) |
LOW |
| LUV |
Guide |
FY26 capacity / H2 ASMs |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+2% FY / ~+3% H2 vs. cons ~+2% (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.0% |
— |
LOW |
| LUV |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
Fundamentally strong (fuel below the $4.10-4.15 guide, industry-leading RASM, structural CASM-X beat) likely drives a modest day-1 pop, but the setup is a sell-the-news: peers that beat (DAL faded ~$92->$85, UAL ~$136->$118 through July) all rolled over, and LUV already round-tripped to ~$48.7 with fuel relief priced in. Out-period math is the drag — implied H2 capacity growth near ~3% into a 'supermajors/capacity-discipline' narrative, plus initiative benefits lapping toward full run-rate, pulls forward estimates and sentiment lower even after a headline beat; a continued FY26 guide punt would accelerate the fade. |
MEDIUM |