| LUV |
Report |
Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.60 vs. cons $0.52 |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Report |
Q2 2026 RASM (unit revenue growth YoY) |
BEAT |
pred ~19.5% vs. cons ~17.5% |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Report |
Q2 2026 CASM-X (unit cost growth YoY, ex-fuel/special) |
BEAT |
pred ~3.0% vs. cons ~3.75% |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Guide |
Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS (reinstate 'at least $4.00' guide) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.00 (aspirational, not formally reissued) vs. cons ~$3.85 (FY2026) |
LOW |
| LUV |
Guide |
Q3 2026 RASM growth guide |
BETTER |
guide ~9-11% vs. cons ~8% (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Guide |
Q3 2026 fuel price/gallon guide |
LOWER |
guide ~$4.10-4.30 vs. cons ~$3.80 (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| LUV |
Guide |
Q3 2026 CASM-X growth guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~3.0-3.5% vs. cons ~3.0% (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| LUV |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.5% (FADE) |
A likely Q2 beat on EPS/RASM/CASM-X (echoing Q1's pattern of guide-beating results) should drive an initial positive pop, but renewed Iran/Strait of Hormuz escalation (11 consecutive nights of strikes, Houthi threats, Brent back above $91) just ahead of the print means analysts will likely raise Q3/H2 fuel cost assumptions even as they praise the quarter, pulling forward EPS revisions down implicitly even without a formal cut. Management's likely continued reluctance to reinstate firm FY2026 EPS guidance (given fuel volatility) removes a catalyst that could have locked in gains, and the stock's already outsized run (~$38 to ~$52 since April) leaves limited room before profit-taking sets in as the fuel narrative reasserts itself over the following days. |
LOW |