{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.60 vs. cons $0.52",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 RASM (unit revenue growth YoY)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~19.5% vs. cons ~17.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 CASM-X (unit cost growth YoY, ex-fuel/special)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~3.0% vs. cons ~3.75%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS (reinstate 'at least $4.00' guide)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.00 (aspirational, not formally reissued) vs. cons ~$3.85 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 RASM growth guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~9-11% vs. cons ~8% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 fuel price/gallon guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.10-4.30 vs. cons ~$3.80 (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 CASM-X growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0-3.5% vs. cons ~3.0% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely Q2 beat on EPS/RASM/CASM-X (echoing Q1's pattern of guide-beating results) should drive an initial positive pop, but renewed Iran/Strait of Hormuz escalation (11 consecutive nights of strikes, Houthi threats, Brent back above $91) just ahead of the print means analysts will likely raise Q3/H2 fuel cost assumptions even as they praise the quarter, pulling forward EPS revisions down implicitly even without a formal cut. Management's likely continued reluctance to reinstate firm FY2026 EPS guidance (given fuel volatility) removes a catalyst that could have locked in gains, and the stock's already outsized run (~$38 to ~$52 since April) leaves limited room before profit-taking sets in as the fuel narrative reasserts itself over the following days.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}