LUV Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
LUV Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$0.55 vs. cons $0.52 MEDIUM
LUV Report RASM growth (Q2 2026 YoY) BEAT pred ~18.4% vs. cons 18.0% MEDIUM
LUV Report CASM-X growth (Q2 2026 YoY) BEAT pred ~3.60% vs. cons 3.75% MEDIUM
LUV Guide Adjusted EPS BETTER guide ~$0.85 vs. cons $0.77 (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
LUV Guide RASM growth LOWER guide ~10.5% vs. cons 12.0% (Q3 2026 YoY) LOW
LUV Guide CASM-X growth LOWER guide ~2.6% vs. cons 2.0% (Q3 2026 YoY) LOW
LUV Guide Adjusted EPS UNCHANGED guide ~$3.25 vs. cons $3.23 (FY2026) MEDIUM
LUV Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
LUV Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.8% (FADE) Q2 beats and Q3 EPS guide of ~$0.85 vs. $0.77 consensus support the initial move, but Q3 RASM of ~10.5% vs. 12.0% and CASM-X of ~2.6% vs. 2.0% weaken out-period margin math; an FY2026 reset to ~$3.25 vs. $3.23 consensus also effectively retires the prior $4.00 objective, limiting estimate revisions and producing a fade. MEDIUM