LVS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
LVS Report Macao Adj. Property EBITDA MISS pred ~$595M vs. cons ~$620M MEDIUM
LVS Report Marina Bay Sands Adj. Property EBITDA IN-LINE pred ~$690M vs. cons ~$700M MEDIUM
LVS Report Adjusted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$0.78 vs. cons ~$0.77 MEDIUM
LVS Guide Macao margin/EBITDA trajectory toward $700M/qtr goal (2H26) LOWER guide ~$620-650M vs. cons ~$680M run-rate (2H26) MEDIUM
LVS Guide Share buyback pace / new authorization BETTER guide ~$800M+/qtr vs. cons ~$740M ($817M auth remaining, Q3'26) MEDIUM
LVS Guide Venetian renovation disruption commentary UNKNOWN guide ~modest/limited vs. cons ~modest (2H26-2027, new rooms Q3'26) LOW
LVS Guide IR2 (MBS expansion) capex cadence UNCHANGED guide ~$8B+ multi-year vs. cons ~$8B, ~20%+ ROIC (2026-2029) LOW
LVS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
LVS Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Soft World-Cup-disrupted Macao market (June GGR -12% YoY) plus persistent margin reinvestment reset drives Macao estimate cuts through the out-period; MBS reported YoY optically weak on the ~$107M hold-inflated Q2'25 comp. Consistent with the stock's pattern of selling off on both prior 'beats' (-14% Q4, -9% Q1), negative revisions outweigh reset-low expectations and buyback support, extending initial weakness rather than reversing it. LOW