{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Macao Adj. Property EBITDA",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$595M vs. cons ~$620M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Marina Bay Sands Adj. Property EBITDA",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$690M vs. cons ~$700M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.78 vs. cons ~$0.77",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Macao margin/EBITDA trajectory toward $700M/qtr goal (2H26)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$620-650M vs. cons ~$680M run-rate (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Share buyback pace / new authorization",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$800M+/qtr vs. cons ~$740M ($817M auth remaining, Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Venetian renovation disruption commentary",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~modest/limited vs. cons ~modest (2H26-2027, new rooms Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "IR2 (MBS expansion) capex cadence",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8B+ multi-year vs. cons ~$8B, ~20%+ ROIC (2026-2029)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Soft World-Cup-disrupted Macao market (June GGR -12% YoY) plus persistent margin reinvestment reset drives Macao estimate cuts through the out-period; MBS reported YoY optically weak on the ~$107M hold-inflated Q2'25 comp. Consistent with the stock's pattern of selling off on both prior 'beats' (-14% Q4, -9% Q1), negative revisions outweigh reset-low expectations and buyback support, extending initial weakness rather than reversing it.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}