Timing clarification: LVS is scheduled to report today, Wednesday, July 22, 2026, after the U.S. market close, with the earnings call at approximately 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT—not tomorrow.
The central question is not whether LVS can replicate its exceptional first quarter. It probably cannot, given normal seasonality and softer Macao industry data. The more important question is whether the company can demonstrate that:
The setup is less demanding than it was earlier in the quarter. LVS shares entered the report near $45.50, down roughly 15% from the beginning of June. Consensus is approximately $3.3–$3.4 billion of revenue and $0.77–$0.78 of adjusted EPS. (barchart.com)
| Metric | 2Q26 expectation/setup | Relevant comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$3.3–$3.4B | $3.18B in 2Q25 |
| Adjusted EPS | ~$0.77–$0.78 | $0.79 in 2Q25 |
| Marina Bay Sands EBITDA | ~$725–$727M market/JPM estimate | $768M reported in 2Q25 |
| Macao EBITDA | The key swing factor; focus likely around whether it can remain near $600M | $566M in 2Q25; $633M in 1Q26 |
| Capital return | Buybacks likely continued, but pace uncertain | $740M repurchased in 1Q26 |
The year-over-year EPS comparison is unusually uninformative because 2Q25 benefited materially from favorable gaming hold at Marina Bay Sands. Meanwhile, LVS’s lower share count should provide a meaningful offset to any decline in reported property EBITDA.
Marina Bay Sands remains LVS’s highest-quality asset and probably the most important determinant of the stock’s long-term valuation.
In 1Q26, MBS generated:
Those results reflected the completed suite renovations, higher-value tourism, strong mass gaming and a major increase in VIP volume. Companywide 1Q26 revenue rose 25% and consolidated property EBITDA reached $1.42 billion. (sec.gov)
JPMorgan expects approximately $727 million of 2Q26 MBS EBITDA, down 5% from the $768 million reported in 2Q25. But last year’s quarter included approximately $107 million of favorable rolling-chip hold.
That means:
On that basis, a $727 million result would represent roughly 10% underlying growth, not economic deterioration. JPMorgan also expects MBS revenue to rise about 3% to $1.42 billion. (ggrasia.com)
Bottom line: A reported MBS decline is not automatically bearish. Hold-adjusted growth and evidence that premium demand remains durable matter much more.
Macao is the harder part of the quarter.
Industry GGR totaled approximately MOP61.0 billion in 2Q26, down 0.1% year over year and 7% sequentially. Mass-market GGR, including slots, increased only 0.8%, while VIP baccarat declined 2.6%. Slots were the bright spot, rising 17%. (ggrasia.com)
The monthly pattern was uneven:
That creates a tougher backdrop than in 1Q26, when LVS reported $633 million of Macao EBITDA, up 18% year over year. Approximately $15 million of that result came from favorable rolling hold, putting normalized EBITDA closer to $618 million.
LVS entered the quarter with several company-specific advantages:
These factors could allow Sands China to outperform a flat market.
Management has been explicit that improving service requires additional hiring, training, marketing and customer reinvestment. Those initiatives should support revenue, but they put pressure on near-term margins.
JPMorgan reportedly entered the reporting season with its Sands China EBITDA estimate 10% below Street consensus, citing softer premium demand, unfavorable hold, World Cup distraction and weakening Chinese consumer indicators. (asgam.com)
Investors should therefore focus on both revenue share and the cost of acquiring that share.
A result below 1Q26 is expected. The market reaction should depend on whether the decline reflects normal seasonality and hold or a deterioration in competitive position.
LVS repurchased $740 million of stock in 1Q26, buying approximately 13 million shares at an average price of $56.64. The company had $817 million remaining under its authorization at the end of March and had reduced its outstanding share count by 14.3% over the prior ten quarters.
It also pays a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share. (sec.gov)
With the stock trading well below the company’s 1Q repurchase price, investors should expect questions about:
A substantial buyback could allow adjusted EPS to hold near last year’s level even if consolidated property EBITDA is only flat or modestly lower.
LVS’s investment case increasingly combines current cash generation with a large construction commitment.
The Marina Bay Sands expansion is expected to cost approximately $8 billion, including land, financing fees and capitalized interest. The project is designed to add luxury hotel inventory, premium gaming areas, convention facilities and a roughly 15,000-seat entertainment arena. Construction began in 2025, with the company targeting completion around 2030 and opening in 2031.
Management has discussed targeting a return on invested capital above 20%, but the project will raise capital expenditures and debt well before it contributes earnings.
Questions for the call include:
LVS ended 1Q with $3.33 billion in unrestricted cash, approximately $15.6 billion of debt and significant unused credit capacity. The balance sheet appears capable of supporting both development and shareholder returns, but execution and cost control will become more important as the project advances. (sec.gov)
Given the recent stock decline and subdued Macao expectations, this outcome may be sufficient if underlying MBS demand remains strong.
The headline EPS number may be less important than the composition of EBITDA.
The most useful scorecard is:
The bar appears reasonable rather than demanding. Macao industry conditions softened materially from 1Q, and expectations for MBS already contemplate a reported year-over-year EBITDA decline. But last year’s unusually favorable Singapore hold makes that comparison deceptive: a roughly $725 million MBS result could still demonstrate healthy underlying growth.
For the stock to respond decisively higher, investors will likely need evidence that MBS’s post-renovation earnings step-up is durable and Sands China can approach its $700 million quarterly EBITDA ambition without sacrificing too much margin to achieve it.