{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Macao Operations EBITDA (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$580M vs. cons $559M (Visible Alpha, Jul 21 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "MBS EBITDA (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$700M vs. cons $728M (Visible Alpha, Jul 21 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adj. EPS Diluted Operating (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.74 vs. cons $0.751 (Visible Alpha, Jul 21 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Macao EBITDA trajectory (Q3 2026 / FY 2026)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide: reaffirm $700M LT target, World Cup one-time; no new number vs. cons $601M Q3E (Visible Alpha, Jul 21 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "MBS EBITDA trajectory (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide: acknowledge VIP normalization, emphasize mass/slots durability; no new number vs. cons $735M Q3E (Visible Alpha, Jul 21 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback pace (qualitative)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide: continued buybacks at depressed price ~$400-500M implied vs. Q1 $740M actual",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "World Cup framing (qualitative)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "management explicitly calls Q2 a one-time anomaly, signals Q3 recovery already underway",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FADE \u2014 sell-side trims MBS Q3/Q4 on VIP normalization; Macao beat partially offsets but does not reverse direction",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}