MCO Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MCO Report Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$4.30 vs. cons ~$4.19 MEDIUM
MCO Report MIS (Ratings) revenue (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$1.18B vs. cons ~$1.16B LOW
MCO Report Total MCO revenue (Q2'26) IN-LINE pred ~$2.02B vs. cons ~$2.00B MEDIUM
MCO Guide FY26 adjusted diluted EPS (reaffirm/raise?) UNCHANGED guide ~$16.40–17.00 (reaffirmed) vs. cons ~$16.69 (FY26) MEDIUM
MCO Guide FY26 MIS revenue growth / H2 issuance tone UNCHANGED guide ~high-single-digit % (~8%, toward low end) vs. cons ~8% (FY26) MEDIUM
MCO Guide FY26 MA ARR growth UNCHANGED guide ~high-single-digit % (~8–9%) vs. cons ~8% (FY26) MEDIUM
MCO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
MCO Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Base case is a modest EPS beat on MIS operating leverage and cost control, but guidance is only reaffirmed (not raised) into a hawkish Fed-hike debate, renewed Hormuz/Iran volatility, and a known mid-teens sequential issuance decline — so out-period math trims H2 issuance/EPS estimates toward the low end even after the beat. With shares having rallied to ~$519 before fading ~5.5% into the print at a premium multiple, and both ratings peers (MCO/SPGI) selling off hard on 7/21 vs. an up market, the de-rating/positioning signal points to continued downward drift rather than reversal. MEDIUM