{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.30 vs. cons ~$4.19",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "MIS (Ratings) revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.18B vs. cons ~$1.16B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total MCO revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.02B vs. cons ~$2.00B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 adjusted diluted EPS (reaffirm/raise?)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$16.40\u201317.00 (reaffirmed) vs. cons ~$16.69 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 MIS revenue growth / H2 issuance tone",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~high-single-digit % (~8%, toward low end) vs. cons ~8% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 MA ARR growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~high-single-digit % (~8\u20139%) vs. cons ~8% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Base case is a modest EPS beat on MIS operating leverage and cost control, but guidance is only reaffirmed (not raised) into a hawkish Fed-hike debate, renewed Hormuz/Iran volatility, and a known mid-teens sequential issuance decline \u2014 so out-period math trims H2 issuance/EPS estimates toward the low end even after the beat. With shares having rallied to ~$519 before fading ~5.5% into the print at a premium multiple, and both ratings peers (MCO/SPGI) selling off hard on 7/21 vs. an up market, the de-rating/positioning signal points to continued downward drift rather than reversal.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}