MCO Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-22

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MCO Report Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$4.32 vs. cons $4.23 MEDIUM
MCO Report MIS Revenue Growth y/y (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~+14% vs. cons ~+11% MEDIUM
MCO Report MA ARR Growth y/y (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~+9% vs. cons ~+8.5% MEDIUM
MCO Guide FY26 Adjusted Diluted EPS guidance BETTER guide ~$16.75-$17.25 (mid ~$17.00) vs. cons ~$16.75 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MCO Guide FY26 MIS Revenue Growth guidance BETTER guide ~+9-10% vs. cons ~+8% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MCO Guide FY26 MA Adjusted Operating Margin guidance UNCHANGED guide ~34-35% vs. cons ~34.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MCO Guide FY26 Share Repurchase guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$2.5B vs. cons ~$2.5B (FY2026) HIGH
MCO Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.0% MEDIUM
MCO Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) A likely beat-and-reaffirm/modest-raise triggers an initial relief pop off the stock's -5.5% pre-print pullback from its $519 high, but the setup (37x trailing earnings, H1 already front-loaded via low-double-digit MIS growth per management's own framing) implies tougher H2 comps; any full-year raise will likely be smaller than the magnitude of the H1 beat, so sell-side models trim implicit H2/out-quarter MIS growth and MA revenue (divestiture drag) even as headline EPS clears the bar, causing profit-taking and partial fade of the initial pop over the following days. MEDIUM