{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.32 vs. cons $4.23",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "MIS Revenue Growth y/y (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+14% vs. cons ~+11%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "MA ARR Growth y/y (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+9% vs. cons ~+8.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted Diluted EPS guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$16.75-$17.25 (mid ~$17.00) vs. cons ~$16.75 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 MIS Revenue Growth guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+9-10% vs. cons ~+8% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 MA Adjusted Operating Margin guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~34-35% vs. cons ~34.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Share Repurchase guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.5B vs. cons ~$2.5B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely beat-and-reaffirm/modest-raise triggers an initial relief pop off the stock's -5.5% pre-print pullback from its $519 high, but the setup (37x trailing earnings, H1 already front-loaded via low-double-digit MIS growth per management's own framing) implies tougher H2 comps; any full-year raise will likely be smaller than the magnitude of the H1 beat, so sell-side models trim implicit H2/out-quarter MIS growth and MA revenue (divestiture drag) even as headline EPS clears the bar, causing profit-taking and partial fade of the initial pop over the following days.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}