Moody's Corporation (MCO) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

Moody's Corporation

Ticker

MCO US

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

Earnings Date

July 22, 2026 — 9:00 AM ET

Prepared

July 21, 2026

Sector ETF (Benchmark)

XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is constructive but not easy — consensus has drifted modestly higher since the Q1 print, the bar on MIS revenue is the key swing factor, and the stock has already rallied ~5% since last earnings, leaving limited room for a miss.

Heading into Q2 2026, the setup for MCO is broadly constructive but nuanced. Management guided for MIS revenue growth in the low-to-mid teens year-over-year and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.15–$4.30, and consensus has since drifted to ~$4.25 and ~$2.08B in total revenue — sitting comfortably within the guided range, suggesting the bar is achievable but not low. The issuance environment has been supportive: spreads recovered sharply after the April volatility episode, hyperscaler debt issuance remained robust, and private credit-related ratings revenue — which grew 80%+ in Q1 — shows no sign of decelerating, with both S&P Global and MSCI confirming strong private market activity through the quarter. On the MA side, ARR growth of ~8% is expected, with the OneView platform migration and AI-driven enterprise deals providing incremental catalysts in the second half; FactSet's Q3 print (July 1) showed API call volumes up 13x quarter-over-quarter and AI-driven ASV growth 50% above the rest of the book, a strong read-through for MA demand. The stock has recovered ~5% from the April 22 earnings close and trades at ~28x NTM P/E — a meaningful de-rating from the 35x+ seen six months ago — so valuation is less stretched, but the stock is not pricing in a miss. The key wildcard is whether the private equity exit and M&A/leveraged finance cycle has begun to accelerate: management flagged this as the single largest unpriced upside driver, and any evidence of a pickup in LBO/M&A issuance in Q2 could push MIS revenue above the guided range.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sits within management’s guided ranges across all key metrics — the bar is achievable but not low. MIS revenue is the bigger swing factor given issuance sensitivity; MA ARR is the more predictable, recurring anchor.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change

Q2 2026 Guidance

Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint

Total Revenue ($M)

$2,079

$1,898

$2,085

+9.8%

High-single-digit % growth (FY)

In line

MIS Revenue ($M)

$1,204

$1,060

$1,201

+13.3%

Low-to-mid teens % growth (Q2)

In line

MA Revenue ($M)

$929

$891

$933

+4.7%

Mid-single-digit % growth (FY)

In line

MA ARR ($B)

$3.607

$3.297

$3.592

+9.0%

High-single-digit % growth (FY)

In line

Adj. Operating EPS ($)

$4.33

$3.56

$4.25

+19.4%

$4.15–$4.30 (midpoint $4.225)

+0.6% above midpoint

Adj. Operating Income ($M)

$983

$846

$980

+15.8%

MCO adj. margin 52%–53% (FY)

In line

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; MCO Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 22, 2026). Consensus estimates as of July 21, 2026.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History: Adj. Operating EPS (Last 8 Quarters)

Quarter

Reported ($)

Consensus ($)

Surprise %

Result

Q2 2024

$3.28

$3.05

+7.5%

Beat

Q3 2024

$3.21

$2.91

+10.3%

Beat

Q4 2024

$2.62

$2.59

+1.2%

Beat

Q1 2025

$3.83

$3.54

+8.2%

Beat

Q2 2025

$3.56

$3.38

+5.3%

Beat

Q3 2025

$3.92

$3.67

+6.8%

Beat

Q4 2025

$3.64

$3.41

+6.7%

Beat

Q1 2026

$4.33

$4.20

+3.1%

Beat

MCO has beaten adjusted operating EPS consensus in all 8 of the last 8 quarters, with an average surprise of ~6.2% — a consistent pattern of conservative guidance and strong execution that sets a high implicit bar for Q2 2026.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

Table 3 — Beat/Miss History: MIS Revenue (Last 8 Quarters)

Quarter

Reported ($M)

Consensus ($M)

Surprise %

Result

Q2 2024

$1,064

$964

+10.4%

Beat

Q3 2024

$1,030

$931

+10.6%

Beat

Q4 2024

$858

$889

−3.5%

Miss

Q1 2025

$1,114

$1,059

+5.2%

Beat

Q2 2025

$1,060

$1,020

+3.9%

Beat

Q3 2025

$1,148

$1,093

+5.0%

Beat

Q4 2025

$995

$969

+2.7%

Beat

Q1 2026

$1,204

$1,192

+1.0%

Beat

MIS revenue has beaten consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters (the Q4 2024 miss was driven by seasonally weak issuance). The average beat in the 7 positive quarters was ~5.5%, though the beat magnitude has compressed as consensus has become more calibrated to the strong issuance cycle.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Full-year guidance was reaffirmed unchanged at Q1 earnings and again at the Bernstein conference (May 28). No post-earnings guidance revisions have been issued; management tone has remained constructive, citing recovering spreads and a healthy issuance pipeline.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings — April 22, 2026)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

MCO Revenue Growth (FY)

High-single-digit % (towards lower end)

~+8.5% YoY ($8.26B)

Unchanged; reaffirmed at Bernstein conference May 28, 2026

MIS Revenue Growth (FY)

High-single-digit %

~+9.0% YoY ($4.66B)

Unchanged; management noted markets “quite constructive” at Bernstein

MIS Revenue Growth (Q2)

Low-to-mid teens %

~+13.3% YoY ($1.20B)

Consensus at low end of guided range; issuance expected to decline mid-teens sequentially from Q1

MA Revenue Growth (FY)

Mid-single-digit % (lower end, post-RAS divestiture)

~+4.7% YoY ($3.79B)

Unchanged; RAS divestiture closed April 30 as expected

MA ARR Growth (FY)

High-single-digit %

~8.5% YoY ($3.81B)

Unchanged; OneView migration and AI enterprise deals cited as H2 catalysts

Adj. Diluted EPS (FY)

$16.40–$17.00

$16.78

Consensus near midpoint ($16.70); unchanged guidance

Adj. Diluted EPS (Q2)

$4.15–$4.30

$4.25

Consensus +0.6% above midpoint ($4.225); within range

MCO Adj. Operating Margin (FY)

52%–53%

~47% (adj. operating income / revenue)

Unchanged; Q2 expected above midpoint of FY range per management

MA Adj. Operating Margin (FY)

34%–35%

~34.5% (FY est.)

Unchanged; Q1 at 32.5%, modest step-up expected in Q2

Share Repurchases (FY)

~$2.5B (↑ raised from $2.0B at Q1)

~$2.5B

↑ Raised at Q1 earnings April 22, 2026; $1.5B already executed in Q1

Free Cash Flow (FY)

$2.8–$3.0B

~$2.9B

Unchanged; Q1 FCF of $844M up 26% YoY, tracking well

Sources: MCO Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Earnings Call Transcript (April 22, 2026); Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference Transcript (May 28, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly higher since the Q1 print across all key metrics, with the most notable revision in MIS revenue and EPS. Consensus is tracking guidance closely — no meaningful divergence — suggesting the Street is not pricing in either a significant beat or miss.

KPI (Period)

Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (Apr 29, 2026)

Current Estimate (Jul 21, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 Earnings Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Consensus vs. Guidance (%)

Adj. EPS — Q2 2026

$4.17

$4.25

+1.9%

$4.15–$4.30

Unchanged

+0.6% vs. midpoint

Adj. EPS — FY 2026

$16.70

$16.78

+0.5%

$16.40–$17.00

Unchanged

+0.5% vs. midpoint

Total Revenue — Q2 2026

$2,065M

$2,085M

+1.0%

High-single-digit % growth (FY)

Unchanged

In line

Total Revenue — FY 2026

$8,236M

$8,255M

+0.2%

High-single-digit % growth

Unchanged

In line

MIS Revenue — Q2 2026

$1,183M

$1,201M

+1.5%

Low-to-mid teens % growth

Unchanged

~+13.3% YoY; in range

MIS Revenue — FY 2026

$4,640M

$4,661M

+0.5%

High-single-digit % growth

Unchanged

In line

MA Revenue — Q2 2026

$933M

$933M

Flat

Mid-single-digit % growth

Unchanged

In line

MA Revenue — FY 2026

$3,796M

$3,791M

−0.1%

Mid-single-digit % growth

Unchanged

In line

MA ARR — Q2 2026

$3,562M

$3,592M

+0.8%

High-single-digit % growth

Unchanged

~+9.0% YoY; in range

MA ARR — FY 2026

$3,781M

$3,811M

+0.8%

High-single-digit % growth

Unchanged

In line

Estimates have drifted modestly higher since the Q1 print, led by MIS revenue (+1.5% for Q2) and EPS (+1.9% for Q2), consistent with a constructive issuance environment and recovering spreads. The revision trajectory is positive but shallow — no dramatic re-rating of expectations — suggesting the Street is calibrated to guidance rather than pricing in a significant beat.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Baseline as of April 29, 2026 (~5 trading days post Q1 earnings).

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: MCO has underperformed XLF since Q1 earnings but has recovered sharply in July, driven by multiple re-expansion as the issuance outlook improved. The 6-month de-rating (P/E from ~35x to ~28x NTM) has created a more reasonable entry point, but the stock is not cheap.

MCO vs. XLF vs. S&P 500 — Indexed Performance Since April 22, 2026 (Last Earnings Date)

Date

MCO (Indexed)

XLF (Indexed)

SPY (Indexed)

Apr 22 (Base)

100.0

100.0

100.0

Apr 30

98.9

99.8

101.1

May 15

91.9

97.9

104.0

May 29

97.1

98.8

106.4

Jun 8 (AI Strategy Call)

95.1

99.5

103.9

Jun 30

97.1

102.7

105.0

Jul 2 (Trade Deal News)

105.1

106.5

104.7

Jul 16 (Recent High)

111.2

108.7

105.6

Jul 21 (Latest)

105.1

107.5

105.2

Note: Indexed to 100 at April 22, 2026 close ($466.72 for MCO, $52.21 for XLF, $711.21 for SPY). MCO closed at $490.77 on July 21, 2026, up ~5.1% since last earnings. XLF up ~7.5%; SPY up ~5.2% over the same period. MCO underperformed XLF through most of the period but has recovered sharply in July. Key events: Bernstein Conference (May 28), AI Strategy Call (June 8), sharp rally on July 1–2 (trade deal optimism / spread tightening). Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).

Valuation Context: MCO trades at ~28.4x NTM P/E and ~20.6x NTM EV/EBITDA as of July 21, 2026 — a meaningful de-rating from the 35x+ P/E seen six months ago. The 12-month P/E multiple has contracted ~23%, while EPS estimates have risen modestly, meaning the stock’s flat 12-month performance (-1.8%) is entirely a multiple story. The current multiple is more reasonable but still commands a premium to peers, leaving limited margin for error on the print. Source: Stock Performance Decomposition Data.

6. Peer Commentaries & Current-Quarter Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the past 60 days is broadly constructive for MCO’s Q2 2026 print. S&P Global flagged potential upside to its own issuance forecast if hyperscaler debt issuance continues at Q1’s pace; MSCI reported 57% private assets recurring net new sales growth and confirmed the Moody’s partnership is active; FactSet’s Q3 print showed AI-driven data demand accelerating sharply, a direct read-through for MA.

Note: Only commentary from the past 60 days (May 21 – July 21, 2026) that addresses the peer’s then-current or forward quarter is included below. Retrospective commentary about prior-quarter results alone is excluded.

S&P Global (SPGI) — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, May 27, 2026

Theme: Ratings Issuance / Macro Outlook (Q2 2026 & FY 2026 Forward)

S&P Global (SPGI) — Mizuho Technology Conference, June 10, 2026

Theme: Issuance Outlook, AI Data Demand, Private Markets (Q2 2026 & FY 2026 Forward)

MSCI — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, May 28, 2026

Theme: Private Assets, AI Demand, Index Momentum (Q2 2026 Forward)

MSCI — Private Assets Business Update Webinar, June 25, 2026

Theme: Private Credit / Private Assets Demand (Q2 2026 & H2 2026 Forward)

MSCI — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 21, 2026

Theme: Q2 2026 Results & H2 2026 Outlook (Same-Day Read-Through)

FactSet (FDS) — Q3 2026 Earnings Call, July 1, 2026

Theme: AI-Driven Data Demand, Dealmaker Activity (Q4 2026 Forward Outlook)

Peer Commentary Summary Table

Peer

Date

Key Theme

MCO Read-Through

Signal

SPGI

May 27

Ratings upside if issuance > forecast; $8T maturity wall through 2028

MIS revenue upside potential

Positive

SPGI

May 27

35–45% pricing uplift for AI-ready data at renewal; 30% higher growth for AI customers

MA ARR pricing power

Positive

SPGI

Jun 10

Hyperscaler issuance forecast conservative; 500% QoQ API call volume growth

MIS upside; MA AI monetization validation

Positive

MSCI

May 28

Private assets accelerating; Moody’s partnership active for private credit scoring

MA Decision Solutions; MIS private credit

Positive

MSCI

Jun 25

PCS 16% growth; Moody’s Analytics integration live for implied ratings

MA revenue; MIS infrastructure

Positive

MSCI

Jul 21

Q2: 12% organic revenue growth; 57% private assets RNNS growth; bullish H2 pipeline

MA ARR; MIS private credit; H2 setup

Positive

MSCI

Jul 21

Sustainability “protracted cyclical downturn”; zero to slightly negative RNNS Q3–Q4

MCO ESG Solutions (small segment)

Modest Negative

FDS

Jul 1

API volumes 13x QoQ; AI ASV growth 50% above non-AI; enterprise agreements extending

MA AI monetization; MCP adoption

Strongly Positive

FDS

Jul 1

Dealmaker ASV +9%; private market data fastest-growing SKUs; Q4 tracking high end

MIS transactional; MA private credit data

Positive

7. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the June 8 AI Strategy Call, which provided the first detailed roadmap for MCO’s AI monetization — validating the MA margin expansion thesis and introducing a consumption-based pricing overlay that could be a meaningful revenue driver in 2027+.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: All insider transactions since last earnings are 10b5-1 planned sales — routine, pre-scheduled dispositions with no discretionary signal. No open-market buys or unusual activity.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Shares

Date

Note

Robert Fauber

President & CEO

10b5-1 Planned Sale

1,467

Jul 1, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; routine monthly sale; no discretionary signal

Richard G. Steele

SVP — General Counsel

10b5-1 Planned Sale

157

Jul 1, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; routine monthly sale; no discretionary signal

Richard G. Steele

SVP — General Counsel

10b5-1 Planned Sale

158

Jun 1, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; routine monthly sale; no discretionary signal

Robert Fauber

President & CEO

10b5-1 Planned Sale

1,467

May 1, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; routine monthly sale; no discretionary signal

Richard G. Steele

SVP — General Counsel

10b5-1 Planned Sale

158

May 1, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan; routine monthly sale; no discretionary signal

All transactions are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 planned sales. CEO Fauber’s monthly sales of 1,467 shares and General Counsel Steele’s monthly sales of ~157–158 shares appear to be part of regular, recurring 10b5-1 programs. No open-market buys or discretionary sales were filed in the period. The absence of any open-market buying is not unusual given the stock’s premium valuation and the pre-earnings blackout window. No insider signal to read into the print.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings (Insider Transaction Data). Transactions from April 22 – July 21, 2026.

9. Key Risks

Key Takeaway: The primary risk to the Q2 print is a softer-than-expected issuance environment in June, particularly if geopolitical volatility or spread widening compressed deal activity late in the quarter. The secondary risk is MA ARR growth deceleration amid the go-to-market transition under new leadership.

Appendix: Data Sources & Citations